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Market
What will be the impact on TikTok's U.S. user base by June 30, 2025?
2
Resolution / Starting Odds
User base increases • 25%
User base remains stable • 25%
User base decreases • 25%
TikTok exits U.S. market • 25%
User statistics from TikTok or industry reports
Story
Supreme Court to Decide on TikTok Ban by Jan. 19 Amid Trump's Request for Pause
Jan 8, 2025, 11:10 PM
The U.S. Supreme Court is set to hear arguments on Friday regarding a federal law that requires TikTok to divest from its Chinese parent company, ByteDance, by January 19, or face a ban in the U.S. The case pits free speech rights against national security concerns, with TikTok and its 170 million users arguing that the law violates the First Amendment. The Biden administration defends the law, citing the potential threat posed by ByteDance's ownership to national security. President-elect Donald Trump has asked the court to pause the ban, seeking time for his incoming administration to negotiate a resolution, citing his electoral mandate. The outcome of the case could have significant implications for the future of social media and digital communication in the U.S.
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Decrease in users • 25%
Data not available • 25%
No significant change • 25%
Increase in users • 25%
Decrease in users • 25%
No significant change • 25%
Other • 25%
Increase in users • 25%
Decrease by 20-50% • 25%
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No significant change • 25%
No Change • 25%
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100-150 million • 25%
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150-170 million • 25%
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Operational with restrictions • 25%
Fully operational • 25%
Under new ownership • 25%
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Remains with ByteDance • 25%
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1.2 to 1.5 billion • 25%
1 to 1.2 billion • 25%
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TikTok sold to U.S. buyer • 25%
TikTok banned • 25%
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Banned • 25%
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Unchanged • 25%
Less favorable • 25%
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Increase in Snapchat Users • 25%
Increase in Instagram Users • 25%
Increase in YouTube Shorts Users • 25%
No Significant Shift • 25%