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Market
How will TikTok's major competitors respond to the U.S. ban by March 31, 2025?
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Resolution / Starting Odds
Launch similar features • 25%
Increase marketing efforts • 25%
No significant changes • 25%
Other strategic moves • 25%
Official announcements from major social media companies
Story
Supreme Court Unanimously Upholds TikTok Ban Starting Sunday Unless ByteDance Divests
Jan 17, 2025, 03:08 PM
The U.S. Supreme Court has unanimously upheld, in a 9-0 decision, a federal law requiring TikTok's Chinese parent company, ByteDance, to divest from the popular social media app by Sunday, January 19th, or face a nationwide ban. The ruling, which rejected TikTok's First Amendment challenge, allows the divest-or-ban law to go into effect as scheduled. The Court cited national security concerns over data collection practices and Chinese control of the app. The ban, set to begin this Sunday, could potentially affect TikTok's 170 million American users unless ByteDance complies with the divestment requirement.
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Similar markets
File new lawsuit • 25%
Negotiate settlement • 25%
Comply with divestment • 25%
No major action • 25%
Continues operations without compliance • 25%
Negotiates a delay or solution with U.S. government • 25%
Sells TikTok to a non-China-based company • 25%
Permanently shuts down TikTok in the U.S. • 25%
No decision by deadline • 34%
Remove TikTok • 33%
Keep TikTok • 33%
Keep TikTok available • 25%
Other actions • 25%
Remove TikTok from app stores • 25%
Announce plans to remove if no sale • 25%
Comply with the ban • 25%
Challenge in court • 25%
Other actions • 25%
Divest from ByteDance • 25%
Cease U.S. operations permanently • 25%
Seek diplomatic intervention • 25%
Other action • 25%
File another legal challenge • 25%
Snapchat increases user engagement • 25%
Instagram releases new features • 25%
YouTube launches short video incentives • 25%
Other responses • 25%
Other resolution • 25%
Wins legal challenge and resumes operations • 25%
Sells TikTok U.S. operations • 25%
Remains banned throughout 2025 • 25%
Implement partial restrictions • 25%
No action taken • 25%
Follow US with similar bans • 25%
Condemn US action • 25%
Majority migrate to alternative platforms • 25%
No significant change in user behavior • 25%
Significant decline in user engagement • 25%
Majority continue using TikTok despite restrictions • 25%
Complete divestment from TikTok • 25%
Partial divestment or restructuring • 25%
Legal appeal and no divestment • 25%
Other actions • 25%
Seek Supreme Court intervention • 25%
Negotiate with U.S. government • 25%
Comply with the ban • 25%
Other actions • 25%