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What impact will the TikTok ban have on its U.S. user base by February 19, 2025?
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Resolution / Starting Odds
Significant decrease (>50%) • 25%
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Reports from TikTok or third-party analytics firms on U.S. user numbers
Story
Supreme Court Likely to Uphold TikTok Ban by January 19 Unless ByteDance Divests, Affecting 170 Million Users
Jan 10, 2025, 06:35 PM
The U.S. Supreme Court appears likely to uphold a federal law that could ban TikTok in the United States starting January 19, unless the app's Chinese parent company, ByteDance, divests its ownership. During oral arguments, justices from both sides of the political spectrum expressed skepticism about TikTok's challenge to the law, which is based on First Amendment grounds. The justices seemed persuaded by the government's argument that national security concerns related to TikTok's ties to China override free speech considerations. Chief Justice John Roberts highlighted the main concern as TikTok's ownership by ByteDance, which is required to cooperate with Chinese intelligence operations. If the law is upheld, TikTok could 'go dark' on January 19, affecting its 170 million American users. However, President-elect Donald Trump, who has 14.7 million followers on the platform and will be inaugurated on January 20, has requested a delay to negotiate a 'political resolution.'
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Similar markets
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