Market
What will be the outcome of Steve Witkoff's diplomatic efforts with Iran by end of 2025?
2
Resolution / Starting Odds
New Agreement Reached • 25%
Increased Sanctions • 25%
Status Quo Maintained • 25%
Other Outcome • 25%
Official announcements from the U.S. government or Iranian government, or credible reports from major news outlets
Story
Trump Appoints Middle East Envoy Steve Witkoff to Lead Iran Diplomacy on Nuclear Agreement
Jan 23, 2025, 04:04 PM
President Donald Trump is set to appoint Steve Witkoff, his Middle East envoy, to lead diplomatic efforts concerning Iran, according to multiple sources including U.S. officials and reports from the Financial Times. This move suggests that Trump is inclined to explore diplomatic avenues before escalating pressure on Tehran. Witkoff's appointment is seen as a signal of Trump's willingness to negotiate a new nuclear agreement with Iran, reflecting a strategy to address Washington's concerns over Iran's nuclear program through diplomacy.
View original story
Similar markets
Increased sanctions • 25%
Escalation of tensions • 25%
Military escalation • 25%
Preliminary agreement reached • 25%
Formal negotiations initiated • 25%
No progress made • 25%
New deal reached • 25%
Stalemate, no progress • 25%
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
Engages in talks • 25%
Rejects talks • 25%
Escalates nuclear activities • 25%
Demands concessions • 25%
Hostages released • 25%
Neither achieved • 25%
Ceasefire achieved • 25%
Both ceasefire and hostages released • 25%
Reassigned to a different role • 25%
Resigns • 25%
Role eliminated • 25%
Continues as special envoy • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Successful diplomatic agreement • 25%
Stalemate with no agreement • 25%
Escalation to military conflict • 25%
Successful agreement • 25%
Stalemate • 25%
Escalation • 25%
Other • 25%
Increased tensions • 25%
Sustained ceasefire • 25%
Other • 25%
Hostage release • 25%
Successful agreement • 25%
No talks held • 25%
Talks initiated but stalled • 25%
Talks held but no agreement • 25%
Talks break down • 25%
No talks initiated • 25%
New agreement reached • 25%
Talks continue without agreement • 25%
Successful hostage release • 25%
Increased sanctions • 25%
Military action • 25%
No significant change • 25%