Market
Will Steve Witkoff visit Tehran for diplomatic talks by the end of Q1 2025?
3
Resolution / Starting Odds
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
Official press releases from the US State Department or Iranian government
Story
Trump Appoints Middle East Envoy Steve Witkoff to Lead Diplomacy on Iran's Nuclear Program
Jan 23, 2025, 03:59 PM
President Donald Trump is set to appoint Steve Witkoff, his Middle East envoy, to lead the US's diplomatic efforts concerning Iran, according to officials cited by the Financial Times. Witkoff's new role is expected to focus on addressing Washington's concerns over Tehran's nuclear program. The move suggests that Trump is willing to explore diplomatic avenues before escalating pressure on Iran, indicating a potential interest in negotiating a new nuclear deal with Tehran.
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Stalemate, no progress • 25%
No progress made • 25%
Escalation of tensions • 25%
Formal negotiations initiated • 25%
New deal reached • 25%
Increased sanctions • 25%
Military escalation • 25%
Preliminary agreement reached • 25%
Other Outcome • 25%
New Agreement Reached • 25%
Status Quo Maintained • 25%
Increased Sanctions • 25%
No • 50%
Yes • 50%
Role eliminated • 25%
Reassigned to a different role • 25%
Resigns • 25%
Continues as special envoy • 25%
Hostage release • 25%
Other diplomatic goals • 25%
Ceasefire agreement • 25%
Both ceasefire and hostage release • 25%
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Hostages released • 25%
Both ceasefire and hostages released • 25%
Neither achieved • 25%
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
