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What will be the outcome of Steve Witkoff's diplomatic efforts with Iran by the end of 2025?
2
Resolution / Starting Odds
New deal reached • 25%
Stalemate, no progress • 25%
Increased sanctions • 25%
Military escalation • 25%
Preliminary agreement reached • 25%
Formal negotiations initiated • 25%
No progress made • 25%
Escalation of tensions • 25%
Official announcements from the U.S. State Department or Iranian government
Story
Trump Appoints Steve Witkoff to Lead Iran Diplomacy for New Nuclear Agreement
Jan 23, 2025, 04:07 PM
President Donald Trump is set to appoint his Middle East envoy, Steve Witkoff, to lead diplomatic efforts concerning Iran, according to multiple sources including two senior American officials. This move suggests that Trump is willing to explore diplomatic avenues before escalating pressure on Tehran. The decision is seen as an indication of Trump's interest in negotiating a new nuclear agreement with Iran, specifically addressing concerns over Tehran's nuclear programme.
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Other Outcome • 25%
Increased Sanctions • 25%
Status Quo Maintained • 25%
New Agreement Reached • 25%
Rejects talks • 25%
Demands concessions • 25%
Engages in talks • 25%
Escalates nuclear activities • 25%
Ceasefire achieved • 25%
Both ceasefire and hostages released • 25%
Hostages released • 25%
Neither achieved • 25%
Reassigned to a different role • 25%
Resigns • 25%
Role eliminated • 25%
Continues as special envoy • 25%
Increased tensions • 25%
Hostage release • 25%
Sustained ceasefire • 25%
Other • 25%
Escalation to military conflict • 25%
Escalation • 25%
Other • 25%
Successful agreement • 25%
Stalemate • 25%
Successful diplomatic agreement • 25%
Stalemate with no agreement • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Talks held but no agreement • 25%
Successful agreement • 25%
No talks held • 25%
Talks initiated but stalled • 25%
Hostage release • 25%
Both ceasefire and hostage release • 25%
Ceasefire agreement • 25%
Other diplomatic goals • 25%
No significant change • 25%
Successful hostage release • 25%
Increased sanctions • 25%
Military action • 25%