Market
How will Iran respond to US diplomatic efforts by Steve Witkoff by mid-2025?
2
Resolution / Starting Odds
Engages in talks • 25%
Rejects talks • 25%
Demands concessions • 25%
Escalates nuclear activities • 25%
Statements from Iranian government or news agencies
Story
Trump Appoints Middle East Envoy Steve Witkoff to Lead Diplomacy on Iran's Nuclear Program
Jan 23, 2025, 03:59 PM
President Donald Trump is set to appoint Steve Witkoff, his Middle East envoy, to lead the US's diplomatic efforts concerning Iran, according to officials cited by the Financial Times. Witkoff's new role is expected to focus on addressing Washington's concerns over Tehran's nuclear program. The move suggests that Trump is willing to explore diplomatic avenues before escalating pressure on Iran, indicating a potential interest in negotiating a new nuclear deal with Tehran.
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Status Quo Maintained • 25%
New Agreement Reached • 25%
Increased Sanctions • 25%
Other Outcome • 25%
Military escalation • 25%
Escalation of tensions • 25%
Stalemate, no progress • 25%
No progress made • 25%
New deal reached • 25%
Formal negotiations initiated • 25%
Preliminary agreement reached • 25%
Increased sanctions • 25%
Mixed • 25%
Opposed • 25%
Supportive • 25%
Neutral • 25%
No significant change • 25%
Increased diplomatic engagement • 25%
Escalation of military activities • 25%
Withdrawal from nuclear commitments • 25%
Maintained status quo • 25%
Increased diplomatic engagement • 25%
Increased military posturing • 25%
Withdrawal from previous agreements • 25%
Military action • 25%
Increased sanctions • 25%
Successful hostage release • 25%
No significant change • 25%
Escalation • 25%
Other • 25%
Successful diplomatic agreement • 25%
Successful agreement • 25%
Stalemate with no agreement • 25%
Escalation to military conflict • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Stalemate • 25%
Increased Tensions • 25%
Status Quo Maintained • 25%
Partial Agreement • 25%
Comprehensive Peace Agreement • 25%
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
Accelerated Nuclear Development • 25%
Military Retaliation • 25%
Diplomatic Measures • 25%
No Significant Response • 25%
Widespread condemnation • 25%
Mixed reactions • 25%
General support • 25%
No significant response • 25%
