Market
Outcome of Steve Witkoff's Middle East diplomatic efforts by Jan 20, 2025
2
Resolution / Starting Odds
Ceasefire achieved • 25%
Hostages released • 25%
Both ceasefire and hostages released • 25%
Neither achieved • 25%
Official announcements, credible news reports, statements from involved parties
Story
Trump Envoy Steve Witkoff Meets Qatari, Israeli Leaders for Gaza Ceasefire and Hostage Release
Dec 4, 2024, 09:14 PM
Donald Trump's incoming Middle East envoy, Steve Witkoff, has met with the Prime Ministers of Qatar and Israel in an effort to broker a ceasefire deal in Gaza before Trump's inauguration in January. According to sources briefed on the talks, Qatar has resumed its role as a key mediator in the Gaza conflict, with expectations that the Hamas negotiating team will return to Doha to facilitate further discussions. This diplomatic push also aims to secure the release of hostages.
View original story
Similar markets
Continues as special envoy • 25%
Role eliminated • 25%
Reassigned to a different role • 25%
Resigns • 25%
Both ceasefire and hostage release • 25%
Other diplomatic goals • 25%
Ceasefire agreement • 25%
Hostage release • 25%
Other • 25%
Sustained ceasefire • 25%
Hostage release • 25%
Increased tensions • 25%
Minor role • 25%
Key mediator • 25%
No recognition • 25%
Supportive role • 25%
Hostages released • 25%
Ceasefire agreement • 25%
Both hostages released and ceasefire • 25%
No progress • 25%
Status quo maintained • 25%
Peace agreement signed • 25%
Ceasefire achieved • 25%
Increased tensions • 25%
No • 50%
Yes • 50%
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
Humanitarian aid to Gaza • 25%
New peace talks initiated • 25%
Other diplomatic actions • 25%
Military aid to Israel • 25%
Facilitated hostage release • 25%
No significant impact • 25%
Facilitated both • 25%
Facilitated ceasefire • 25%
Talks initiated but no agreement • 25%
Mission aborted • 25%
No mission conducted • 25%
Successful agreement reached • 25%
Some hostages released • 25%
No hostages released • 25%
All hostages released • 25%
Negotiations ongoing • 25%