Market
Will there be an increase in diplomatic visits between the U.S. and Iran by June 2025?
3
Resolution / Starting Odds
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
Reports from major news outlets or official government releases indicating diplomatic visits
Story
Trump Appoints Middle East Envoy Steve Witkoff to Lead Iran Diplomacy on Nuclear Agreement
Jan 23, 2025, 04:04 PM
President Donald Trump is set to appoint Steve Witkoff, his Middle East envoy, to lead diplomatic efforts concerning Iran, according to multiple sources including U.S. officials and reports from the Financial Times. This move suggests that Trump is inclined to explore diplomatic avenues before escalating pressure on Tehran. Witkoff's appointment is seen as a signal of Trump's willingness to negotiate a new nuclear agreement with Iran, reflecting a strategy to address Washington's concerns over Iran's nuclear program through diplomacy.
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Improvement • 25%
Other • 25%
No significant change • 25%
Deterioration • 25%
Status quo • 25%
Deteriorated relations • 25%
Severed diplomatic ties • 25%
Improved relations • 25%
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
Tri-party agreement reached • 25%
Iran-US talks initiated • 25%
No significant diplomatic progress • 25%
Iran-Israel talks initiated • 25%
No talks held • 25%
Successful agreement • 25%
Talks held but no agreement • 25%
Talks initiated but stalled • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Stalemate with no agreement • 25%
Escalation to military conflict • 25%
Escalation • 25%
Other • 25%
Stalemate • 25%
Successful agreement • 25%
Successful diplomatic agreement • 25%
Severed diplomatic ties • 25%
Worsened relations • 25%
No change • 25%
Improved relations • 25%
No • 50%
Yes • 50%
Talks Postponed • 25%
Agreement Reached • 25%
No Agreement • 25%
Talks Canceled • 25%