Market
Will Steve Witkoff negotiate a new nuclear agreement with Iran by end of 2025?
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Resolution / Starting Odds
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
Official announcements from the U.S. government or Iranian government, or credible reports from major news outlets
Story
Trump Appoints Middle East Envoy Steve Witkoff to Lead Iran Diplomacy on Nuclear Agreement
Jan 23, 2025, 04:04 PM
President Donald Trump is set to appoint Steve Witkoff, his Middle East envoy, to lead diplomatic efforts concerning Iran, according to multiple sources including U.S. officials and reports from the Financial Times. This move suggests that Trump is inclined to explore diplomatic avenues before escalating pressure on Tehran. Witkoff's appointment is seen as a signal of Trump's willingness to negotiate a new nuclear agreement with Iran, reflecting a strategy to address Washington's concerns over Iran's nuclear program through diplomacy.
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No • 50%
Yes • 50%
Preliminary agreement reached • 25%
New deal reached • 25%
Escalation of tensions • 25%
Formal negotiations initiated • 25%
Stalemate, no progress • 25%
Increased sanctions • 25%
Military escalation • 25%
No progress made • 25%
No • 50%
Yes • 50%
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
New agreement reached • 25%
Negotiations ongoing • 25%
Negotiations failed • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
