Market
What will be the outcome of U.S.-Iran diplomatic talks by the end of 2025?
3
Resolution / Starting Odds
Successful agreement • 25%
Talks held but no agreement • 25%
Talks initiated but stalled • 25%
No talks held • 25%
Official statements from the Iranian government or the U.S. State Department
Story
Iran's Pezeshkian Denies Trump Assassination Plot in NBC Interview, Open to Talks if U.S. Keeps Promises
Jan 15, 2025, 08:09 AM
In an interview with NBC News anchor Lester Holt, Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian denied allegations that Iran plotted to assassinate U.S. President-elect Donald Trump during last year's election campaign. He stated that Iran "never" attempted such actions and "never will." Pezeshkian called the accusations a scheme by Israel and other nations to promote hostility towards Iran. He also emphasized that Iran is not seeking nuclear weapons and warned Trump against risking war, asserting that Iran is not afraid of conflict but hopes for peace. Pezeshkian expressed readiness to engage in talks with the incoming Trump administration if the U.S. demonstrates commitment to its promises, saying, "If Trump proves he will keep his word, we will engage in talks."
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New agreement reached • 25%
Talks continue without agreement • 25%
Talks break down • 25%
No talks initiated • 25%
Stalemate • 25%
Other • 25%
Successful agreement • 25%
Escalation • 25%
Severed diplomatic ties • 25%
Status quo • 25%
Deteriorated relations • 25%
Improved relations • 25%
Talks Canceled • 25%
No Agreement • 25%
Agreement Reached • 25%
Talks Postponed • 25%
No significant change • 25%
Military action • 25%
Increased sanctions • 25%
Successful hostage release • 25%
No significant change • 25%
Diplomatic agreement reached • 25%
US conducts military strike • 25%
Iran develops nuclear weapon • 25%
Worsened Relations • 25%
Status Quo • 25%
Improved Relations • 25%
Military Conflict • 25%
Status quo maintained • 25%
Increased sanctions • 25%
Military action taken • 25%
New diplomatic agreement • 25%
Escalation to military conflict • 25%
New nuclear agreement • 25%
Continuation of current tensions • 25%
Other resolution • 25%
Negotiations with no agreement • 25%
No negotiations • 25%
Comprehensive agreement • 25%
Partial agreement • 25%
No significant change • 25%
Improvement • 25%
Other • 25%
Deterioration • 25%
Talks initiated • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
No response by deadline • 25%
Talks rejected • 25%