Market
What level of nuclear program restrictions will be agreed upon with Iran by end of 2025?
2
Resolution / Starting Odds
Significant Restrictions • 25%
Moderate Restrictions • 25%
Minimal Restrictions • 25%
No Agreement • 25%
Official announcements from the U.S. government or Iranian government, or credible reports from major news outlets
Story
Trump Appoints Middle East Envoy Steve Witkoff to Lead Iran Diplomacy on Nuclear Agreement
Jan 23, 2025, 04:04 PM
President Donald Trump is set to appoint Steve Witkoff, his Middle East envoy, to lead diplomatic efforts concerning Iran, according to multiple sources including U.S. officials and reports from the Financial Times. This move suggests that Trump is inclined to explore diplomatic avenues before escalating pressure on Tehran. Witkoff's appointment is seen as a signal of Trump's willingness to negotiate a new nuclear agreement with Iran, reflecting a strategy to address Washington's concerns over Iran's nuclear program through diplomacy.
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Similar markets
Reduced nuclear activities • 25%
Nuclear program dismantled • 25%
No significant change • 25%
Significant advancements • 25%
Status quo maintained • 25%
New agreement reached • 25%
Military action taken • 25%
Sanctions increased • 25%
New nuclear agreement • 25%
Other resolution • 25%
Escalation to military conflict • 25%
Continuation of current tensions • 25%
Iran renounces nuclear weapons • 25%
Iran escalates nuclear rhetoric • 25%
No significant change • 25%
Iran maintains current stance • 25%
Above 60% • 25%
Below 20% • 25%
Between 20% and 60% • 25%
Not publicly disclosed • 25%
New diplomatic agreement reached • 25%
Other outcomes • 25%
No action taken • 25%
Snapback sanctions reimposed • 25%
Non-compliance • 25%
Full compliance • 25%
Withdrawal from agreements • 25%
Partial compliance • 25%
Seek diplomatic resolution • 25%
Pursue nuclear weapons • 25%
Maintain current stance • 25%
Enhance nuclear energy use • 25%
