Market
Will Steve Witkoff negotiate a new nuclear deal with Iran by the end of 2025?
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Resolution / Starting Odds
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
Official announcements from the US State Department or Iranian government
Story
Trump Appoints Middle East Envoy Steve Witkoff to Lead Diplomacy on Iran's Nuclear Program
Jan 23, 2025, 03:59 PM
President Donald Trump is set to appoint Steve Witkoff, his Middle East envoy, to lead the US's diplomatic efforts concerning Iran, according to officials cited by the Financial Times. Witkoff's new role is expected to focus on addressing Washington's concerns over Tehran's nuclear program. The move suggests that Trump is willing to explore diplomatic avenues before escalating pressure on Iran, indicating a potential interest in negotiating a new nuclear deal with Tehran.
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Yes • 50%
No • 50%
Status Quo Maintained • 25%
New Agreement Reached • 25%
Increased Sanctions • 25%
Other Outcome • 25%
Formal negotiations initiated • 25%
Increased sanctions • 25%
Escalation of tensions • 25%
Stalemate, no progress • 25%
New deal reached • 25%
Military escalation • 25%
Preliminary agreement reached • 25%
No progress made • 25%
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
No • 50%
Yes • 50%
New agreement reached • 25%
Negotiations failed • 25%
Negotiations ongoing • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
