Market
What impact will the ceasefire agreement have on future Israel-Hamas negotiations by the end of 2025?
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Resolution / Starting Odds
Improved relations • 25%
Worsened relations • 25%
No significant change • 25%
Further escalations • 25%
Statements from Israeli or Hamas representatives or international news analysis
Story
Israel to Release 3 Israelis, Including 80-Year-Old, and 5 Thais Under Ceasefire Deal
Jan 29, 2025, 03:35 PM
Israel has received a list of hostages scheduled to be released from Hamas captivity on Thursday as part of a ceasefire agreement in Gaza, according to the Prime Minister's Office. The list includes three Israeli citizens: Arbel Yehud, 29; Agam Berger, 19; and Gadi Mozes, 80, one of the oldest hostages held by Hamas. In addition, five Thai nationals who have been held captive since October 7, 2023, will also be released without any exchange of Palestinian prisoners. The release follows mediation efforts by Qatar and Egypt. Detailed information will be provided after the families have been notified.
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Failure • 25%
Stalemate • 25%
Complete success • 25%
Partial success • 25%
No progress in peace talks • 25%
Moderate progress in peace talks • 25%
Significant progress in peace talks • 25%
Deterioration of peace talks • 25%
Ceasefire breaks with minor skirmishes • 25%
Ceasefire holds • 25%
New agreement reached • 25%
Ceasefire breaks with major conflict • 25%
Other • 25%
Informal negotiations continue • 25%
Formal peace talks initiated • 25%
Ceasefire ends without further talks • 25%
Stalemate with no major changes • 25%
Successful long-term peace • 25%
Temporary peace with renewed conflict • 25%
Complete breakdown of ceasefire • 25%
Other • 25%
Ceasefire holds • 25%
Ceasefire breaks • 25%
New terms negotiated • 25%
Partial ceasefire agreement • 25%
No agreement • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Full ceasefire agreement • 25%
Ceasefire with terms agreed • 25%
Other • 25%
No agreement reached • 25%
Temporary truce without formal agreement • 25%
Ceasefire holds, no major conflict • 25%
New agreement reached • 25%
Ceasefire broken, major conflict resumes • 25%
Ceasefire broken, minor skirmishes • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Ceasefire agreed • 25%
Ceasefire rejected • 25%
Negotiations ongoing • 25%
Partially successful • 25%
Unsuccessful • 25%
Extended or renegotiated • 25%
Fully successful • 25%
Ceasefire with hostage release • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
No ceasefire agreement • 25%
Ceasefire without hostage release • 25%