Market
What will be the outcome of the ceasefire negotiations between Israel and Hamas by February 28, 2025?
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Joe Biden•Israeli•Benjamin Netanyahu•Gaza•Hamas•Netanyahu•Biden•Doha•White House National Security•Jake Sullivan•CNN
Resolution / Starting Odds
Ceasefire agreed • 25%
Ceasefire rejected • 25%
Negotiations ongoing • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Official announcements from Israeli or Hamas representatives, or credible news outlets
Story
Biden Urges Immediate Ceasefire in Call with Netanyahu as Hostage Deal Nears
Jan 12, 2025, 05:48 PM
President Joe Biden spoke with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu on Sunday to discuss ongoing negotiations for a ceasefire in Gaza and the release of hostages held by Hamas. Netanyahu updated Biden on the progress of the negotiations, including the mandate given to the Israeli negotiating team in Doha. White House National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan told CNN that an agreement is "very, very close." According to reports, Biden emphasized the immediate need for a ceasefire, the return of the hostages, and a surge in humanitarian aid to the region.
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Other outcome • 25%
Ceasefire with hostage release • 25%
Ceasefire without hostage release • 25%
No ceasefire agreement • 25%
Ceasefire agreement reached and implemented • 25%
Ceasefire agreement reached but not implemented • 25%
No agreement reached • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Ceasefire agreed and hostages released • 25%
Ceasefire agreed, no hostages released • 25%
No ceasefire, hostages released • 25%
No ceasefire, no hostages released • 25%
No agreement reached • 25%
Ceasefire with terms agreed • 25%
Temporary truce without formal agreement • 25%
Other • 25%
Ceasefire and hostages release agreed • 25%
Ceasefire only agreed • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
No agreement reached • 25%
Partial ceasefire with phased agreements • 25%
Full ceasefire agreement • 25%
Full agreement reached • 25%
No agreement reached • 25%
Talks collapse • 25%
Partial agreement reached • 25%
Partial ceasefire agreement • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
No agreement • 25%
Full ceasefire agreement • 25%
No Agreement Reached • 25%
Full Ceasefire and Hostage Release • 25%
Other Outcome • 25%
Partial Ceasefire and Hostage Release • 25%
Resumption of conflict • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Permanent ceasefire • 25%
Temporary ceasefire extension • 25%
Ceasefire without hostages released • 25%
No ceasefire, hostages released • 25%
No ceasefire, no hostages released • 25%
Ceasefire with hostages released • 25%
Ceasefire ends with renewed conflict • 25%
Ceasefire ends without major incidents • 25%
Ceasefire extended • 25%
Permanent peace agreement • 25%
Ceasefire violated by Israel • 25%
Ceasefire violated by Hamas • 25%
Ceasefire holds • 25%
Ceasefire breaks • 25%
Ceasefire extended • 25%
Ceasefire breaks down completely • 25%
New terms negotiated • 25%
Ceasefire fully implemented • 25%
Partial implementation • 25%
Ceasefire broken • 25%
No implementation • 25%
Ceasefire holds with full compliance • 25%
Ceasefire holds with minor violations • 25%
Ceasefire breaks with major violations • 25%
Ceasefire collapses entirely • 25%
Ceasefire holds without violation • 25%