Market
What will be the outcome of the Israel-Hamas ceasefire negotiations by January 31, 2025?
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Resolution / Starting Odds
Ceasefire with terms agreed • 25%
Temporary truce without formal agreement • 25%
No agreement reached • 25%
Other • 25%
Official announcements from Israeli or Hamas officials, or credible news sources such as BBC or Reuters
Story
Israeli PM Netanyahu Heads to Cairo for Gaza Ceasefire and Hostage Deal; Agreement Expected Within Days
Dec 17, 2024, 02:29 PM
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is reportedly en route to Cairo for talks on a Gaza ceasefire and hostage deal negotiations, sources briefed on the meetings said. A Gaza ceasefire deal is expected to be signed in the coming days, according to multiple reports. The discussions aim to finalize agreements on both a ceasefire and the release of hostages held by Hamas in Gaza. These developments mark significant progress towards ending the ongoing conflict between Israel and Hamas.
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No agreement • 25%
Full ceasefire agreement • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Partial ceasefire agreement • 25%
Full ceasefire agreement • 25%
Partial ceasefire with phased agreements • 25%
Ceasefire and hostages release agreed • 25%
Ceasefire only agreed • 25%
No agreement reached • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
No ceasefire agreement • 25%
Ceasefire with hostage release • 25%
Ceasefire without hostage release • 25%
Ceasefire rejected • 25%
Ceasefire agreed • 25%
Negotiations ongoing • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Ceasefire agreement reached and implemented • 25%
Ceasefire agreement reached but not implemented • 25%
No agreement reached • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
No Agreement Reached • 25%
Full Ceasefire and Hostage Release • 25%
Other Outcome • 25%
Partial Ceasefire and Hostage Release • 25%
Ceasefire breaks • 25%
New terms negotiated • 25%
Ceasefire holds • 25%
Ceasefire extended • 25%
Ceasefire holds with minor violations • 25%
Ceasefire collapses entirely • 25%
Partial implementation • 25%
Ceasefire fully implemented • 25%
No implementation • 25%
Ceasefire violated by Israel • 25%
Ceasefire violated by Hamas • 25%
Ceasefire breaks down completely • 25%
Ceasefire broken • 25%
Ceasefire holds without violation • 25%
Ceasefire breaks with major violations • 25%
Ceasefire holds with full compliance • 25%
Ceasefire holds with minor incidents • 25%
Ceasefire holds with no major incidents • 25%
Ceasefire is extended • 25%
Ceasefire collapses • 25%
Unsuccessful • 25%
Fully successful • 25%
Partially successful • 25%
Extended or renegotiated • 25%
No ceasefire, no hostages released • 25%
Ceasefire agreed and hostages released • 25%
Ceasefire agreed, no hostages released • 25%
No ceasefire, hostages released • 25%
Permanent ceasefire agreed • 25%
No agreement reached • 25%
Other • 25%
Temporary ceasefire agreed • 25%
Ceasefire ends with renewed conflict • 25%
Ceasefire extended • 25%
Permanent peace agreement • 25%
Ceasefire ends without major incidents • 25%