Market
Outcome of Israel-Hamas ceasefire deal by end of 2025?
3
Resolution / Starting Odds
Ceasefire holds, no major conflict • 25%
Ceasefire broken, minor skirmishes • 25%
Ceasefire broken, major conflict resumes • 25%
New agreement reached • 25%
Official government statements and credible news reports
Story
Ben-Gvir and Otzma Yehudit Ministers Resign Over Gaza Ceasefire Deal
Jan 18, 2025, 07:40 PM
Israeli National Security Minister Itamar Ben-Gvir has resigned from Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's government in protest over a ceasefire and hostage exchange deal with Hamas in Gaza. Ben-Gvir, leader of the far-right Otzma Yehudit party, submitted his resignation along with other party ministers on Sunday morning, calling the agreement "disastrous", "reckless", and a threat to Israel's national security. He criticized the release of prisoners to Jerusalem and the West Bank, stating that the deal "violates all red lines" and undermines the war's successes. Despite his resignation, Ben-Gvir stated he would ensure Netanyahu remains Prime Minister.
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Ceasefire holds with full peace agreement • 25%
Ceasefire extended with negotiations ongoing • 25%
Ceasefire breaks with renewed conflict • 25%
Ceasefire holds without full agreement • 25%
Partial success • 25%
Complete success • 25%
Failure • 25%
Stalemate • 25%
Stalemate with no major changes • 25%
Successful long-term peace • 25%
Temporary peace with renewed conflict • 25%
Complete breakdown of ceasefire • 25%
Ceasefire breaks with major conflict • 25%
Ceasefire holds with no major violations • 25%
Ceasefire holds with minor violations • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Partial implementation with tensions • 25%
Resumption of conflict • 25%
Sustained peace • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Temporary ceasefire agreed • 25%
Permanent ceasefire agreed • 25%
No agreement reached • 25%
Other • 25%
Ceasefire holds with no major incidents • 25%
Ceasefire is extended • 25%
Ceasefire collapses • 25%
Ceasefire holds with minor incidents • 25%
Full ceasefire agreement • 25%
Renewed hostilities • 25%
Partial ceasefire with conditions • 25%
No agreement reached • 25%
Partially successful • 25%
Unsuccessful • 25%
Fully successful • 25%
Extended or renegotiated • 25%
Information on Avera Mengistu and Hisham al-Sayed received • 25%
Hadar Goldin's body returned • 25%
No agreement reached • 25%
Yahya Sinwar's body returned • 25%
