Market
What will be the outcome of the Israel-Hamas ceasefire agreement by the end of 2025?
2
Resolution / Starting Odds
Complete success • 25%
Partial success • 25%
Failure • 25%
Stalemate • 25%
Reports from international news agencies and official statements from the UN or involved parties
Story
Trump Doubts Three-Phase Gaza Ceasefire Starting Sunday
Jan 21, 2025, 02:21 AM
U.S. President Donald Trump has expressed doubts about the sustainability of the three-phase ceasefire agreement between Israel and Hamas in Gaza, which began on Sunday. Speaking from the Oval Office on the first day of his second term, Trump stated, "I'm not confident. That's not our war, it's their war." The agreement includes a hostage exchange and the withdrawal of Israeli forces from densely populated areas of Gaza. Trump described Gaza as a "massive demolition site" and highlighted its potential for redevelopment, citing its coastal location and favorable climate. He also suggested that the U.S. might assist in Gaza's reconstruction. Trump noted that Hamas is significantly weakened but emphasized that the group's governance of Gaza is untenable. The agreement, originally drafted during the Biden administration, is currently in its first phase.
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Unsuccessful • 25%
Fully successful • 25%
Extended or renegotiated • 25%
Partially successful • 25%
Ceasefire collapses • 25%
Ceasefire is extended • 25%
Ceasefire holds with minor incidents • 25%
Ceasefire holds with no major incidents • 25%
No implementation • 25%
Ceasefire holds with minor violations • 25%
Ceasefire breaks with major violations • 25%
Ceasefire collapses entirely • 25%
Partial implementation • 25%
Ceasefire holds • 25%
Ceasefire fully implemented • 25%
Ceasefire breaks down completely • 25%
Ceasefire extended • 25%
Ceasefire violated by Hamas • 25%
Ceasefire violated by Israel • 25%
Ceasefire holds without violation • 25%
Ceasefire breaks • 25%
New terms negotiated • 25%
Ceasefire broken • 25%
Ceasefire holds with full compliance • 25%
Permanent ceasefire • 25%
Resumption of conflict • 25%
Temporary ceasefire extension • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Ceasefire holds with full peace agreement • 25%
Ceasefire holds without full agreement • 25%
Ceasefire extended with negotiations ongoing • 25%
Ceasefire breaks with renewed conflict • 25%
Ceasefire broken, major conflict resumes • 25%
Ceasefire broken, minor skirmishes • 25%
New agreement reached • 25%
Ceasefire holds, no major conflict • 25%
Permanent peace agreement • 25%
Ceasefire ends without major incidents • 25%
Ceasefire extended • 25%
Ceasefire ends with renewed conflict • 25%
No agreement reached • 25%
Ceasefire with terms agreed • 25%
Temporary truce without formal agreement • 25%
Other • 25%
Partial implementation with tensions • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Sustained peace • 25%
Resumption of conflict • 25%
Full ceasefire agreement • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Partial ceasefire agreement • 25%
No agreement • 25%
Temporary peace with renewed conflict • 25%
Stalemate with no major changes • 25%
Successful long-term peace • 25%
Complete breakdown of ceasefire • 25%
Full ceasefire agreement • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
No agreement reached • 25%
Ceasefire only agreed • 25%
Partial ceasefire with phased agreements • 25%
Ceasefire and hostages release agreed • 25%