Market
What will be the outcome of the ceasefire agreement between Israel and Hamas by February 25, 2025?
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Israel Defense Forces•IDF•Israeli•Hamas•Gaza Strip•Daniela Gilboa•Karina Ariev•Liri Albag•Naama Levy•Israel•Manpower Directorate•Medical Corps•Israeli Air Force•Palestinian Islamic Jihad•Gaza City•Palestine Square•Hebrew•Palestinian
Resolution / Starting Odds
Formal peace talks initiated • 25%
Informal negotiations continue • 25%
Ceasefire ends without further talks • 25%
Other • 25%
Official statements from either the Israeli government or Hamas, or credible news reports
Story
IDF Awaits Noon Release of Four Israeli Female Soldiers as Hamas Militants Gather in Gaza City
Jan 25, 2025, 08:07 AM
The Israel Defense Forces (IDF) have completed preparations to receive four Israeli female soldiers who are hostages held by Hamas in the Gaza Strip. The hostages, identified as Daniela Gilboa, Karina Ariev, Liri Albag, and Naama Levy, are expected to be released around 12 noon as part of the second phase of a hostage release agreement between Israel and Hamas. The IDF's Manpower Directorate and the Medical Corps have established initial reception centers where the returning hostages will receive medical care and personal support before being transferred to hospitals to reunite with their families. Israeli Air Force helicopters are on standby to transport the hostages from the border area to hospitals, with commanders emphasizing the great privilege and responsibility of bringing the freed hostages home safely. Meanwhile, hundreds of armed Hamas and Palestinian Islamic Jihad militants have gathered in Gaza City's Palestine Square, where a stage has been set up for the handover, which is expected to take place before the International Committee of the Red Cross. A sign in Hebrew reading "Zionism won’t prevail" is displayed at the site, and the militants are displaying force together ahead of the release. This comes as part of a ceasefire deal that also anticipates the release of Palestinian prisoners held by Israel.
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Similar markets
Other outcome • 25%
Ceasefire agreed • 25%
Ceasefire rejected • 25%
Negotiations ongoing • 25%
Permanent ceasefire • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Resumption of conflict • 25%
Temporary ceasefire extension • 25%
Ceasefire holds and hostages are released • 25%
Ceasefire breaks and hostages remain • 25%
Ceasefire breaks with hostages released • 25%
Ceasefire holds but hostages remain • 25%
Fully successful • 25%
Extended or renegotiated • 25%
Unsuccessful • 25%
Partially successful • 25%
Ceasefire without hostage release • 25%
Ceasefire with hostage release • 25%
No ceasefire agreement • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Stalemate with no major changes • 25%
Successful long-term peace • 25%
Temporary peace with renewed conflict • 25%
Complete breakdown of ceasefire • 25%
Partial success • 25%
Complete success • 25%
Failure • 25%
Stalemate • 25%
Permanent peace agreement • 25%
Ceasefire ends without major incidents • 25%
Ceasefire extended • 25%
Ceasefire ends with renewed conflict • 25%
New terms negotiated • 25%
Ceasefire breaks • 25%
Ceasefire extended • 25%
Ceasefire holds • 25%
No implementation • 25%
Partial implementation • 25%
Ceasefire fully implemented • 25%
Ceasefire holds with full compliance • 25%
Ceasefire breaks with major violations • 25%
Ceasefire holds with minor violations • 25%
Ceasefire holds without violation • 25%
Ceasefire broken • 25%
Ceasefire breaks down completely • 25%
Ceasefire violated by Hamas • 25%
Ceasefire collapses entirely • 25%
Ceasefire violated by Israel • 25%
Temporary truce without formal agreement • 25%
No agreement reached • 25%
Other • 25%
Ceasefire with terms agreed • 25%
No agreement reached • 25%
Ceasefire agreement reached but not implemented • 25%
Ceasefire agreement reached and implemented • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Ceasefire holds with no major incidents • 25%
Ceasefire broken with minor incidents • 25%
New agreement or extension reached • 25%
Ceasefire broken with major conflict • 25%