Market
What will be the outcome of Israel-Hamas ceasefire negotiations by February 28, 2025?
2
Resolution / Starting Odds
Ceasefire with hostage release • 25%
Ceasefire without hostage release • 25%
No ceasefire agreement • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Official announcements from Israeli and Hamas officials or credible news agencies
Story
Israel and Hamas Near Ceasefire Deal to Free 33 Hostages, Biden Says
Jan 13, 2025, 07:58 PM
Ceasefire talks between Israel and Hamas are in advanced stages, potentially leading to the release of up to 33 hostages, according to Israeli officials. U.S. President Joe Biden announced that a Gaza deal is 'on the brink' of coming to fruition, referring to a proposal he laid out months ago. 'We're pressing hard to close this deal,' Biden said, emphasizing the urgency to halt the fighting, secure Israel's security, and significantly increase humanitarian assistance to Gaza. He acknowledged that the people of Gaza have 'lived through hell' and stressed that Palestinians need peace. Multiple sources indicate that an agreement is close to being finalized.
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Negotiations ongoing • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Ceasefire rejected • 25%
Ceasefire agreed • 25%
Ceasefire with terms agreed • 25%
Other • 25%
Temporary truce without formal agreement • 25%
No agreement reached • 25%
Ceasefire and hostages release agreed • 25%
Full ceasefire agreement • 25%
No agreement reached • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Ceasefire only agreed • 25%
Partial ceasefire with phased agreements • 25%
Full ceasefire agreement • 25%
Partial ceasefire agreement • 25%
No agreement • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Talks collapse • 25%
No agreement reached • 25%
Partial agreement reached • 25%
Full agreement reached • 25%
Ceasefire agreement reached and implemented • 25%
No agreement reached • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Ceasefire agreement reached but not implemented • 25%
Ceasefire extended • 25%
Ceasefire ends without major incidents • 25%
Permanent peace agreement • 25%
Ceasefire ends with renewed conflict • 25%
No ceasefire, hostages released • 25%
No ceasefire, no hostages released • 25%
Ceasefire agreed, no hostages released • 25%
Ceasefire agreed and hostages released • 25%
No ceasefire, hostages released • 25%
No ceasefire, no hostages released • 25%
Ceasefire with hostages released • 25%
Ceasefire without hostages released • 25%
Ceasefire broken • 25%
Ceasefire holds without violation • 25%
Ceasefire violated by Israel • 25%
Ceasefire violated by Hamas • 25%
Ceasefire breaks down completely • 25%
Ceasefire fully implemented • 25%
Partial implementation • 25%
Ceasefire collapses entirely • 25%
Ceasefire breaks with major violations • 25%
Ceasefire holds with minor violations • 25%
No implementation • 25%
Ceasefire holds with full compliance • 25%
New terms negotiated • 25%
Ceasefire breaks • 25%
Ceasefire extended • 25%
Ceasefire holds • 25%
No agreement reached • 25%
Permanent ceasefire agreed • 25%
Temporary ceasefire agreed • 25%
Other • 25%
Ceasefire holds with no major incidents • 25%
Ceasefire is extended • 25%
Ceasefire collapses • 25%
Ceasefire holds with minor incidents • 25%