Market
Outcome of Israel-Hamas ceasefire by end of 2025?
2
Hamas•Israeli•Palestine Square•Gaza City•Israel•Karina Ariev•Daniella Gilboa•Naama Levy•Liri Albag•Nahal Oz•Gaza•Palestinian
Resolution / Starting Odds
Ceasefire holds • 25%
Ceasefire breaks • 25%
New terms negotiated • 25%
Other • 25%
Official statements from Israeli and Hamas officials, verified by major news agencies
Story
Hamas Frees Four Israeli Soldiers After 15 Months in Exchange for 200 Prisoners
Jan 25, 2025, 10:29 AM
Hamas militants released four Israeli female soldiers on Saturday, handing them over to the International Committee of the Red Cross in Palestine Square in Gaza City as part of a ceasefire agreement with Israel. The soldiers—Karina Ariev (20), Daniella Gilboa (20), Naama Levy (20), and Liri Albag (19)—had been held captive for 15 months since being captured from Israel's Nahal Oz military base near Gaza during the October 7, 2023 attack. Prior to their release, the soldiers were paraded on a stage before a crowd in Gaza City. In exchange, Israel is set to release 200 Palestinian prisoners, including those serving life sentences. This handover marks the second prisoner swap under the ceasefire, following the release of three Israeli women and 90 Palestinian prisoners last Sunday. The released soldiers were escorted out of Gaza by Israeli special forces and reunited with their families at a facility near the border after 477 days in Hamas captivity.
View original story
Similar markets
Ceasefire broken, major conflict resumes • 25%
Ceasefire holds, no major conflict • 25%
Ceasefire broken, minor skirmishes • 25%
New agreement reached • 25%
Ceasefire extended with negotiations ongoing • 25%
Ceasefire breaks with renewed conflict • 25%
Ceasefire holds without full agreement • 25%
Ceasefire holds with full peace agreement • 25%
Long-term peace agreement • 25%
Stalemate with no agreement • 25%
Extended ceasefire • 25%
Resumption of hostilities • 25%
Partial implementation with tensions • 25%
Resumption of conflict • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Sustained peace • 25%
Stalemate • 25%
Complete success • 25%
Partial success • 25%
Failure • 25%
Ceasefire holds • 25%
New long-term peace agreement reached • 25%
Ceasefire breaks with major conflict • 25%
Ceasefire breaks with minor skirmishes • 25%
New agreement or extension reached • 25%
Ceasefire holds with no major incidents • 25%
Ceasefire broken with minor incidents • 25%
Ceasefire broken with major conflict • 25%
Ceasefire holds with no major incidents • 25%
Ceasefire holds with minor incidents • 25%
Ceasefire collapses • 25%
Ceasefire is extended • 25%
Ceasefire reinstated with new terms • 25%
Ceasefire continues under current terms • 25%
Ceasefire collapses • 25%
Prolonged negotiations without resolution • 25%
Other • 25%
Temporary ceasefire agreed • 25%
Permanent ceasefire agreed • 25%
No agreement reached • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Ceasefire breaks with major conflict • 25%
Ceasefire holds with minor violations • 25%
Ceasefire holds with no major violations • 25%
Renewed hostilities • 25%
Partial ceasefire with conditions • 25%
No agreement reached • 25%
Full ceasefire agreement • 25%