Market
What will be the outcome of the Israel-Hamas ceasefire agreement by July 31, 2025?
3
Resolution / Starting Odds
Fully successful • 25%
Partially successful • 25%
Unsuccessful • 25%
Extended or renegotiated • 25%
Official statements from Israel, Hamas, and international mediators
Story
Israel Approves Three-Phase Ceasefire With Hamas, 33 Hostages and 95 Prisoners to Be Exchanged Sunday
Jan 17, 2025, 11:33 PM
Israel's Cabinet has approved a ceasefire deal with Hamas in Gaza, marking a significant step towards ending the 15-month war. The agreement, set to begin on Sunday, includes the release of 33 Israeli hostages, comprising women, children, and individuals over 50 years old, in exchange for the release of 95 Palestinian prisoners from Israeli jails. The ceasefire is structured in three phases, with the initial six-week period aimed at facilitating the exchange of hostages and prisoners, allowing for increased humanitarian aid into Gaza, and enabling displaced Palestinians to return to their homes. The deal was mediated by Qatar and the U.S., despite last-minute complications cited by Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. The approval came after a lengthy meeting of the full Cabinet, which overrode objections from some hardline ministers. The ceasefire is expected to bring temporary relief to the region, which has been under Hamas control and has seen over 46,000 Palestinian deaths and widespread displacement since the conflict began following Hamas's cross-border attack on October 7, 2023, that killed 1,200 people and took 250 hostages, with 98 still held.
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Ceasefire collapses • 25%
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