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What will be the outcome of the ceasefire agreement between Israel and Hamas by June 30, 2025?
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Resolution / Starting Odds
Ceasefire holds • 25%
Ceasefire breaks with minor skirmishes • 25%
Ceasefire breaks with major conflict • 25%
New agreement reached • 25%
Official statements from Israeli and Hamas representatives or international mediators
Story
Israel to Receive Three Hostages, Including 80-Year-Old, and Five Thais Thursday
Jan 29, 2025, 03:09 PM
The Israeli Prime Minister's Office confirmed that it has received the list of hostages scheduled to be released from Hamas captivity in Gaza tomorrow, Thursday. The list, conveyed via intermediaries Qatar and Egypt, includes three Israeli hostages: Agam Berger (19), Arbel Yehud (29), and Gadi Mozes (80), one of the oldest hostages still held. In addition, five Thai nationals are set to be released without any exchange of Palestinian prisoners. The hostages have been held since October 7, 2023. The release is part of the ongoing ceasefire agreement between Israel and Hamas. Following this release, the number of hostages remaining in captivity will reduce to 82. Detailed information will be provided after the families have been notified.
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Resumption of conflict • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Permanent ceasefire • 25%
Temporary ceasefire extension • 25%
Ceasefire breaks with major conflict • 25%
Ceasefire breaks with minor skirmishes • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Ceasefire holds • 25%
Ceasefire is extended • 25%
Ceasefire holds with no major incidents • 25%
Ceasefire holds with minor incidents • 25%
Ceasefire collapses • 25%
Ceasefire ends without further talks • 25%
Informal negotiations continue • 25%
Other • 25%
Formal peace talks initiated • 25%
Extended or renegotiated • 25%
Partially successful • 25%
Fully successful • 25%
Unsuccessful • 25%
Successful long-term peace • 25%
Temporary peace with renewed conflict • 25%
Complete breakdown of ceasefire • 25%
Stalemate with no major changes • 25%
Stalemate • 25%
Complete success • 25%
Partial success • 25%
Failure • 25%
Ceasefire collapses • 25%
Ceasefire holds • 25%
Partial compliance • 25%
New agreement reached • 25%
Ceasefire holds and hostages are released • 25%
Ceasefire breaks with hostages released • 25%
Ceasefire breaks and hostages remain • 25%
Ceasefire holds but hostages remain • 25%
Ceasefire holds with full compliance • 25%
Ceasefire holds without violation • 25%
Ceasefire violated by Israel • 25%
Ceasefire violated by Hamas • 25%
Ceasefire breaks down completely • 25%
Ceasefire fully implemented • 25%
Partial implementation • 25%
Ceasefire broken • 25%
No implementation • 25%
Ceasefire holds with minor violations • 25%
Ceasefire breaks with major violations • 25%
Ceasefire collapses entirely • 25%
Minor skirmishes • 25%
Ceasefire holds • 25%
Ceasefire extended • 25%
Ceasefire breaks • 25%
New terms negotiated • 25%
Major conflict resumes • 25%
New peace agreement • 25%
No agreement reached • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Ceasefire agreement reached and implemented • 25%
Ceasefire agreement reached but not implemented • 25%
Ceasefire agreed • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Negotiations ongoing • 25%
Ceasefire rejected • 25%