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What will be the impact of the ceasefire on Gaza conflict resolution by the end of 2025?
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Resolution / Starting Odds
Significant progress in peace talks • 25%
Moderate progress in peace talks • 25%
No progress in peace talks • 25%
Deterioration of peace talks • 25%
Reports from international conflict resolution organizations or peace talks progress
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Macron Announces Release of Ofer Kalderon and Ohad Yahalomi Among 33 Hostages in Gaza Ceasefire
Jan 17, 2025, 10:57 AM
French President Emmanuel Macron announced that French-Israeli citizens Ofer Kalderon and Ohad Yahalomi, who have been held captive for 15 months, are included in the first group of 33 hostages set to be released by Hamas. This release is part of the initial phase of a ceasefire agreement between Israel and Hamas, which is expected to begin on Sunday. The hostages' release marks a significant step in the ongoing efforts to resolve the conflict in Gaza.
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Long-term ceasefire • 25%
Ongoing conflict • 25%
Failed negotiations • 25%
Short-term ceasefire • 25%
No change in humanitarian conditions • 25%
Moderate improvement in humanitarian conditions • 25%
Significant improvement in humanitarian conditions • 25%
Worsening of humanitarian conditions • 25%
Significant decrease in hostilities • 25%
Increase in hostilities • 25%
No change in hostilities • 25%
Moderate decrease in hostilities • 25%
Ceasefire holds with no major violations • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Ceasefire breaks with major conflict • 25%
Ceasefire holds with minor violations • 25%
Deterioration • 25%
Moderate improvement • 25%
No change • 25%
Significant improvement • 25%
Stalemate • 25%
Complete success • 25%
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Ceasefire implemented • 25%
Partial ceasefire with ongoing skirmishes • 25%
Increased international military intervention • 25%
No ceasefire, continued conflict • 25%
Ceasefire holds • 25%
Ceasefire collapses • 25%
Partial compliance • 25%
New agreement reached • 25%
Hamas remains, war ends • 25%
Hamas removed, war ends • 25%
Hamas remains, war continues • 25%
Hamas removed, war continues • 25%
Resumption of conflict • 25%
Sustained peace • 25%
Partial implementation with tensions • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Agreement approved and implemented • 25%
Negotiations continue beyond deadline • 25%
Agreement not approved • 25%
Agreement approved but not implemented • 25%