Market
What will be the outcome of Qatar and Egypt's mediation efforts between Israel and Hamas by the end of 2025?
2
Resolution / Starting Odds
New ceasefire agreement • 25%
Prisoner exchange deal • 25%
Humanitarian aid agreement • 25%
No new agreements • 25%
Official announcements from involved parties or international news agencies
Story
Israel to Release 3 Israelis, Including 80-Year-Old, and 5 Thais Under Ceasefire Deal
Jan 29, 2025, 03:35 PM
Israel has received a list of hostages scheduled to be released from Hamas captivity on Thursday as part of a ceasefire agreement in Gaza, according to the Prime Minister's Office. The list includes three Israeli citizens: Arbel Yehud, 29; Agam Berger, 19; and Gadi Mozes, 80, one of the oldest hostages held by Hamas. In addition, five Thai nationals who have been held captive since October 7, 2023, will also be released without any exchange of Palestinian prisoners. The release follows mediation efforts by Qatar and Egypt. Detailed information will be provided after the families have been notified.
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Yes • 50%
No • 50%
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
Qatar's mediation leads to partial agreements • 25%
Qatar remains involved without resolution • 25%
Qatar withdraws from mediation • 25%
Qatar successfully mediates a ceasefire • 25%
Partial agreement • 25%
Successful ceasefire • 25%
Failed negotiations • 25%
No negotiations • 25%
Other • 25%
Partial agreement • 25%
Failed negotiations • 25%
Successful ceasefire • 25%
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
No • 50%
Yes • 50%
Role disputed • 25%
Major facilitator • 25%
Minor facilitator • 25%
No significant role • 25%
No agreement reached • 25%
Ceasefire agreement reached • 25%
Partial agreement (e.g., hostage release only) • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Continued conflict • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Peace treaty • 25%
Ceasefire agreement • 25%
Hostage release only • 25%
Both ceasefire and hostage release • 25%
Neither • 25%
Ceasefire only • 25%