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What will be the state of the Assad regime by December 31, 2025?
2
Resolution / Starting Odds
Assad remains in power • 25%
Assad steps down • 25%
Regime change without Assad stepping down • 25%
Civil war intensifies • 25%
Reports from international news agencies and official government statements
Story
Iran Requests Safe Passage for Troops and Protection of Shiite Shrines from HTS, Citing Two Iranian Officials
Dec 7, 2024, 09:43 PM
Iran has requested the Syrian opposition, specifically the Hay'at Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), to allow safe passage for its troops to exit Syria and to ensure the protection of Shiite shrines. This request comes amid ongoing negotiations between Iranian forces and advancing Syrian rebels, as reported by multiple Iranian officials and covered by The New York Times. An internal memo from a member of Iran's Revolutionary Guards described the situation in Syria as 'unbelievable and strange,' suggesting a shift in Iran's stance towards the Assad regime. The memo indicated that Iran may have accepted the fall of Assad and is losing the will to resist, reflecting a significant change in the dynamics of the conflict.
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Stable • 25%
Under Siege • 25%
Collapsed • 25%
Transition of Power • 25%
Assad remains in power • 25%
Assad steps down voluntarily • 25%
Assad is overthrown • 25%
Assad is exiled • 25%
Regime remains in power • 25%
Regime overthrown • 25%
Regime transitions to new leadership • 25%
Civil war continues • 25%
Regains full control • 25%
Maintains current control • 25%
Loses significant territory • 25%
Regime collapse • 25%
Assad remains in power • 25%
Assad resigns • 25%
Assad is ousted • 25%
Power transition to a new government • 25%
Complete collapse • 25%
Reduced to minor factions • 25%
Continues to hold some territories • 25%
Regains significant power • 25%
Increased territorial control • 25%
Decreased territorial control • 25%
No significant change • 25%
Loss of major cities • 25%
Still in power • 25%
In exile • 25%
Overthrown • 25%
Other • 25%
Still in power • 25%
Exiled • 25%
Overthrown • 25%
Resigned voluntarily • 25%
In Russia under asylum • 25%
Extradited to another country • 25%
Returned to Syria • 25%
Deceased • 25%
Assad remains in power • 25%
Assad steps down • 25%
Military coup • 25%
International intervention • 25%