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Assad's status by end of 2025?
2
Syrian•Russia•HTS•Assad•Syria•Russian•Sergei Ryabkov•Libyan•Muammar Gaddafi•International Criminal Court
Resolution / Starting Odds
In Russia under asylum • 25%
Extradited to another country • 25%
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Deceased • 25%
Official statements from governments or credible news agencies
Story
Assad Flees to Russia Amid HTS Offensive, Intelligence Operatives Offer Safe Passage
Dec 11, 2024, 11:08 AM
Russian intelligence operatives reportedly convinced former Syrian President Bashar al-Assad to flee to Russia, warning him that his regime was on the verge of collapse due to a rapidly advancing rebel offensive led by the armed group HTS. Assad, along with his family, was transported from Syria using a Russian airbase, with the aircraft's transponder turned off to avoid detection. This operation was confirmed by Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei Ryabkov, who stated that Assad was moved in the 'most secure way possible' and is now safely in Russia. The move was influenced by Russia's desire to prevent Assad from meeting a fate similar to that of Libyan leader Muammar Gaddafi, whose body was mutilated by a mob in 2011. Russia has also made it clear that it will not extradite Assad for trial, as it is not a party to the International Criminal Court.
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