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What will be the outcome of Assad regime's control in Syria by December 31, 2025?
2
Resolution / Starting Odds
Regains full control • 25%
Maintains current control • 25%
Loses significant territory • 25%
Regime collapse • 25%
Reports from credible international news agencies and official statements
Story
Iran Evacuates Military Commanders Including Quds Force from Syria on Friday Amid Assad's Precarious Position
Dec 7, 2024, 12:50 AM
Iran has initiated the evacuation of military commanders and personnel from Syria, as reported by The New York Times. This decision, which took place on Friday, is seen as an indication of Iran's diminishing ability to support President Bashar al-Assad amid a resurgent rebel offensive. Regional officials and three Iranian officials confirmed the evacuation, which includes senior commanders from the Quds Force. The situation reflects the increasingly precarious position of Assad's regime as rebel groups continue to advance in southern Syria.
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Assad remains in power • 25%
Assad steps down • 25%
Regime change without Assad stepping down • 25%
Civil war intensifies • 25%
Assad remains in power • 25%
Assad steps down voluntarily • 25%
Assad is overthrown • 25%
Assad is exiled • 25%
Increased territorial control • 25%
Decreased territorial control • 25%
No significant change • 25%
Loss of major cities • 25%
Stable • 25%
Under Siege • 25%
Collapsed • 25%
Transition of Power • 25%
Regime remains in power • 25%
Regime overthrown • 25%
Regime transitions to new leadership • 25%
Civil war continues • 25%
Peace Agreement • 25%
Ongoing Conflict • 25%
Partition of Syria • 25%
Other • 25%
Assad returns to power • 25%
New regime established • 25%
Ongoing civil conflict • 25%
International intervention • 25%
Status quo maintained • 25%
Government gains significant ground • 25%
Rebels gain significant ground • 25%
Peace agreement reached • 25%
Still in power • 25%
In exile • 25%
Overthrown • 25%
Other • 25%
Full control and recognized government • 25%
Partial control with ongoing conflict • 25%
Regime reestablished • 25%
Other outcomes • 25%
Ceasefire Agreement • 25%
Regime Change • 25%
Continued Conflict • 25%
Other • 25%