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What will be the status of Assad's presidency by December 31, 2025?
2
Resolution / Starting Odds
Assad remains in power • 25%
Assad resigns • 25%
Assad is ousted • 25%
Power transition to a new government • 25%
Official announcements from the Syrian government or credible news agencies
Story
Russia Has No Plan to Save Assad; Embassy Advises Citizens to Leave
Dec 6, 2024, 02:55 PM
According to multiple reports citing sources close to the Kremlin, including Bloomberg, Russia currently does not have a plan to assist Syrian President Bashar al-Assad amid recent developments in Syria. The reports indicate that Russia does not foresee a plan emerging as long as the Syrian army continues to abandon its positions. Despite this, Russia has reportedly used warplanes to strike rebel positions during their rapid advance, although there has been no clear pronouncement of support for the Syrian government. Some sources mention that the Russian embassy in Damascus has advised Russian citizens to leave the country. Russia is said to be evaluating the situation in Syria, and further discussions on the extent of aid needed may occur after the assessment is complete.
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Still in power • 25%
Resigned • 25%
Ousted • 25%
Deceased • 25%
Stable • 25%
Under Siege • 25%
Collapsed • 25%
Transition of Power • 25%
Still in power • 25%
In exile • 25%
Overthrown • 25%
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Remains in exile • 25%
Returns to political role in Syria • 25%
Seeks political role in another country • 25%
Retires from politics • 25%
Assad remains in power • 25%
Assad steps down • 25%
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Civil war intensifies • 25%
Still in power • 25%
Exiled • 25%
Overthrown • 25%
Resigned voluntarily • 25%
In Russia under asylum • 25%
Extradited to another country • 25%
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Confirmed alive and well • 25%
Confirmed injured • 25%
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Status remains unconfirmed • 25%
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Remains in Russia • 25%
Extradited to a third country • 25%
Other • 25%
Regime remains in power • 25%
Regime overthrown • 25%
Regime transitions to new leadership • 25%
Civil war continues • 25%