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Outcome for Assad's regime by December 31, 2025?
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Iran•Syria•Quds Force•Fatemiyoun Brigade•Iranian•Damascus•IRGC•The New York Times•Iraq•Lebanon•Syrian•Latakia•Assad•Homs
Resolution / Starting Odds
Assad remains in power • 25%
Assad steps down voluntarily • 25%
Assad is overthrown • 25%
Assad is exiled • 25%
Reports from major news outlets such as BBC, Al Jazeera, or The New York Times
Story
Iran Evacuates Senior Commanders from Syria as Rebels Seize Homs
Dec 7, 2024, 01:08 AM
Iran has begun evacuating its military commanders and personnel from Syria, including senior Quds Force commanders and parts of the Fatemiyoun Brigade, signaling its inability to help keep President Bashar al-Assad in power amid a resurgent rebel offensive. The evacuation began on Friday, with orders issued from the Iranian embassy in Damascus and IRGC bases, according to reports from The New York Times citing regional officials and three Iranian officials. The move includes the withdrawal of military leaders, diplomatic staff, and civilians, with some being relocated to Iraq and Lebanon via air, land routes, and the Syrian port of Latakia. This development reflects increasing instability for Assad's regime as rebel forces advance, having taken over cities like Homs and Deir al-Zour.
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Stable • 25%
Under Siege • 25%
Collapsed • 25%
Transition of Power • 25%
Civil war intensifies • 25%
Assad remains in power • 25%
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Partial suppression with ongoing resistance • 25%
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Assad steps down • 25%
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New regime established • 25%
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Ceasefire Agreement • 25%
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In Russia under asylum • 25%
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Assad resigns • 25%
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Assad remains in power • 25%
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