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Will Iran publicly acknowledge a shift in stance towards Assad by December 31, 2025?
3
Resolution / Starting Odds
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
Public statements by Iranian officials or reports from credible news sources
Story
Iran Requests Safe Passage for Troops and Protection of Shiite Shrines from HTS, Citing Two Iranian Officials
Dec 7, 2024, 09:43 PM
Iran has requested the Syrian opposition, specifically the Hay'at Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), to allow safe passage for its troops to exit Syria and to ensure the protection of Shiite shrines. This request comes amid ongoing negotiations between Iranian forces and advancing Syrian rebels, as reported by multiple Iranian officials and covered by The New York Times. An internal memo from a member of Iran's Revolutionary Guards described the situation in Syria as 'unbelievable and strange,' suggesting a shift in Iran's stance towards the Assad regime. The memo indicated that Iran may have accepted the fall of Assad and is losing the will to resist, reflecting a significant change in the dynamics of the conflict.
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Yes • 50%
No • 50%
Cut ties completely • 25%
Reduce ties significantly • 25%
Maintain current ties • 25%
Strengthen ties • 25%
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
Formal diplomatic relations established • 25%
Informal cooperation agreements • 25%
No significant progress • 25%
Hostile relations develop • 25%
Increase diplomatic efforts for peace • 25%
Focus on regional alliances • 25%
Maintain current stance • 25%
Withdraw from regional involvement • 25%
