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What will be the outcome of U.S. trade agreement restructuring by the end of 2025?
2
Resolution / Starting Odds
Major restructuring • 25%
Minor adjustments • 25%
No changes • 25%
Other outcomes • 25%
Official U.S. trade agreements or government announcements detailing changes
Story
Trump Threatens NATO Exit Over Unpaid Bills, Hints at Ukraine Aid Cut
Dec 8, 2024, 06:31 PM
Former President Donald Trump has stated that he would consider withdrawing the United States from NATO if other member countries fail to meet their financial obligations and treat the U.S. fairly. In an interview with NBC's "Meet the Press," Trump remarked, "If they're paying their bills and if I think they're treating us fairly, the answer is absolutely—I'd stay with NATO." He also suggested the possibility of reducing aid to Ukraine and emphasized the need to restructure unfair trade agreements with the U.S.
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New trade deal reached • 25%
Trade negotiations stall • 25%
Trade war escalates • 25%
Status quo maintained • 25%
New trade agreement reached • 25%
Increased tariffs without agreement • 25%
Status quo maintained • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Significant increase in tariffs on Chinese goods • 25%
No major changes in trade policy • 25%
New trade agreements with non-China countries • 25%
Other outcomes • 25%
Improved relations • 25%
Status quo maintained • 25%
Increased tensions • 25%
Other • 25%
Favorable to U.S. • 25%
Neutral • 25%
Unfavorable to U.S. • 25%
No significant agreements • 25%
New trade agreement • 25%
Increased tariffs • 25%
Status quo maintained • 25%
Escalation of trade tensions • 25%
New trade agreement reached • 25%
No agreement, tariffs remain • 25%
Tariffs reduced without new agreement • 25%
Trade tensions escalate • 25%
Successful agreement reached • 25%
No agreement, tariffs imposed • 25%
Ongoing negotiations • 25%
Negotiations stalled • 25%
Improved relations • 25%
Status quo maintained • 25%
Increased tensions • 25%
New trade agreement • 25%
New trade agreement • 25%
No agreement reached • 25%
Temporary truce • 25%
Escalation of trade war • 25%
Increased tariffs on China • 25%
Increased tariffs on EU • 25%
New trade deal with China • 25%
New trade deal with EU • 25%
New trade agreement reached • 25%
Trade tensions escalate • 25%
Status quo maintained • 25%
Other outcome • 25%