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What will be the main outcome of U.S. and China trade negotiations by December 31, 2025?
2
Resolution / Starting Odds
New trade agreement • 25%
No agreement reached • 25%
Temporary truce • 25%
Escalation of trade war • 25%
Official announcements from the U.S. Trade Representative or Chinese government
Story
Trump Taps "Tariff Hawk" Lighthizer as U.S. Trade Representative, Signaling Renewed Trade War with China
Nov 8, 2024, 05:29 PM
President-elect Donald Trump has asked Robert Lighthizer to return as the U.S. Trade Representative, signaling a potential revival of aggressive trade policies from his previous administration. Lighthizer, known as a "Tariff Hawk," served as Trade Representative from 2017 to 2021 and played a key role in launching the trade war with China. Prior to his government service, he spent three decades at Wall Street law firm Skadden Arps, where he fought Chinese imports on behalf of the U.S. steel industry, including U.S. Steel. Although Lighthizer had expressed interest in serving as Treasury Secretary, he has been tapped to oversee U.S. trade policy once again. Lighthizer's return suggests a continuation of tariff-focused trade policies aimed at protecting American industries, indicating Trump's intention to resume the trade war with China.
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New trade deal reached • 25%
Trade negotiations stall • 25%
Trade war escalates • 25%
Status quo maintained • 25%
New trade agreement reached • 25%
Trade tensions escalate • 25%
Status quo maintained • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Improved relations • 25%
Status quo maintained • 25%
Increased tensions • 25%
New trade agreement • 25%
New tariffs agreed • 25%
Tariffs reduced • 25%
Status quo maintained • 25%
Trade agreement reached • 25%
New trade agreement • 25%
Increased tariffs • 25%
Status quo maintained • 25%
Escalation of trade tensions • 25%
New trade agreement reached • 25%
Increased tariffs without agreement • 25%
Status quo maintained • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Resolution reached • 25%
Ongoing negotiations • 25%
Escalation of tensions • 25%
Stalemate • 25%
Improved relations • 25%
Status quo maintained • 25%
Increased tensions • 25%
Other • 25%
Significant deterioration • 25%
Minor deterioration • 25%
No change • 25%
Improvement • 25%
Improved relations • 25%
Deteriorated relations • 25%
Status quo maintained • 25%
Other significant event • 25%
Trade agreement reached • 25%
Tariffs imposed • 25%
Status quo maintained • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Tariffs implemented • 25%
Tariffs avoided • 25%
Partial tariffs • 25%
Trade agreement revised • 25%