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What will be the outcome of the first major trade agreement by December 31, 2025?
2
Resolution / Starting Odds
Increased tariffs on China • 25%
Increased tariffs on EU • 25%
New trade deal with China • 25%
New trade deal with EU • 25%
Official announcements from the White House or the U.S. Trade Representative
Story
Trump Appoints Peter Navarro as Senior Counselor for Trade After Four-Month Prison Stint Related to January 6 Attack
Dec 4, 2024, 04:23 PM
President Donald Trump has appointed Peter Navarro as his Senior Counselor for Trade and Manufacturing in his second administration. Navarro, who previously served four months in prison for contempt of Congress related to the January 6 Capitol attack, is expected to play a key role in shaping the administration's trade policies. His return signals a strong commitment to implementing the steep tariffs that Trump promised during his campaign. This appointment may create tensions with Trump's nominee for commerce secretary, Howard Lutnick, who is also set to lead the trade agenda. Navarro's previous disagreements with Trump regarding tariffs on steel and Chinese products have been noted, but he remains a prominent figure in Trump's trade strategy.
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Major restructuring • 25%
Other outcomes • 25%
No changes • 25%
Minor adjustments • 25%
Tariffs imposed • 25%
New energy trade deal • 25%
Trade tensions escalate • 25%
Status quo maintained • 25%
US imposes tariffs, Canada retaliates • 25%
Other outcomes • 25%
Tariffs not imposed, negotiations successful • 25%
US imposes tariffs, no retaliation • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Trade agreement reached • 25%
Tariffs imposed • 25%
Status quo maintained • 25%
Status quo maintained • 25%
Trade tensions escalate • 25%
New trade agreement reached • 25%
Tariffs increased • 25%
Negotiations lead to compromise • 25%
EU increases energy purchases • 25%
U.S. imposes tariffs • 25%
No significant change • 25%
No • 50%
Yes • 50%
Disagreement on GM corn trade • 25%
Focus on unrelated trade issues • 25%
No significant outcome • 25%
Agreement on GM corn trade • 25%
New trade agreement reached • 25%
Trade tensions escalate • 25%
Status quo maintained • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
No agreement, tariffs imposed • 25%
Negotiations stalled • 25%
Ongoing negotiations • 25%
Successful agreement reached • 25%
Improved relations • 25%
New trade agreement • 25%
Increased tensions • 25%
Status quo maintained • 25%
Agreement reached • 25%
No agreement • 25%
Negotiations ongoing • 25%
Negotiations suspended • 25%