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What will be the outcome of U.S. trade negotiations with China in 2025?
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Donald Trump•Robert Lighthizer•Hawk•Financial Times•Lighthizer•China•Trump•USMCA•Mexico•Canada•Wall Street•Skadden Arps•Mexican
Resolution / Starting Odds
New trade agreement reached • 25%
Increased tariffs without agreement • 25%
Status quo maintained • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Official announcements from U.S. government or trade agreements published by major news outlets
Story
Trump Asks 'Tariff Hawk' Lighthizer to Return as U.S. Trade Representative; MXN Falls
Nov 8, 2024, 05:29 PM
President-elect Donald Trump has asked Robert Lighthizer, known as a 'Tariff Hawk,' to return as the U.S. Trade Representative, according to the Financial Times. Lighthizer, known for his protectionist trade policies and advocacy for decoupling from China, previously served in this role from 2017 to 2021 during Trump's first administration. He was instrumental in launching the trade war with China and negotiating the USMCA agreement with Mexico and Canada. Lighthizer has a background as an attorney at the Wall Street law firm Skadden Arps, where he represented the U.S. steel industry. The Mexican peso (MXN) fell to 20.25 per dollar following the news.
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New trade agreement • 25%
Increased tariffs • 25%
Status quo maintained • 25%
Escalation of trade tensions • 25%
New trade deal reached • 25%
Trade negotiations stall • 25%
Trade war escalates • 25%
Status quo maintained • 25%
Improved relations • 25%
Status quo maintained • 25%
Increased tensions • 25%
Other • 25%
New trade agreement reached • 25%
Trade tensions escalate • 25%
Status quo maintained • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Improved relations • 25%
Status quo maintained • 25%
Increased tensions • 25%
New trade agreement • 25%
New tariffs agreed • 25%
Tariffs reduced • 25%
Status quo maintained • 25%
Trade agreement reached • 25%
New trade agreement • 25%
No agreement reached • 25%
Temporary truce • 25%
Escalation of trade war • 25%
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Minor deterioration • 25%
No change • 25%
Improvement • 25%
Improved relations • 25%
Deteriorated relations • 25%
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Other significant event • 25%
Resolution reached • 25%
Ongoing negotiations • 25%
Escalation of tensions • 25%
Stalemate • 25%
Major restructuring • 25%
Minor adjustments • 25%
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Other outcomes • 25%
Passed in both House and Senate • 25%
Passed in House only • 25%
Passed in Senate only • 25%
Not passed in either • 25%