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Market
What will be the outcome of U.S.-China trade relations by December 31, 2025?
2
Resolution / Starting Odds
Improved relations • 25%
Status quo maintained • 25%
Increased tensions • 25%
New trade agreement • 25%
Official trade agreements or announcements from U.S. and Chinese government agencies
Story
Trump Invites Xi Jinping to January 20th Inauguration Despite Tariff Threats
Dec 12, 2024, 09:26 PM
President-elect Donald Trump has extended an invitation to Chinese President Xi Jinping to attend his inauguration on January 20th, despite ongoing tensions over trade and geopolitical issues. This move is seen as an attempt to foster dialogue with both allies and competitors. However, sources indicate that Xi Jinping is not expected to attend the ceremony in person, with China likely to send a high-level delegation in his place. The invitation comes amidst Trump's threats to impose massive tariffs on Chinese goods and his administration's efforts to address illegal immigration and drug trafficking from China. The decision to invite Xi has surprised both Beijing and U.S. allies, given the complex dynamics of U.S.-China relations and the absence of precedent for foreign leaders attending U.S. presidential inaugurations.
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Improved relations • 25%
Status quo maintained • 25%
Increased tensions • 25%
Other • 25%
New trade deal reached • 25%
Trade negotiations stall • 25%
Trade war escalates • 25%
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New trade agreement reached • 25%
Trade tensions escalate • 25%
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New trade agreement • 25%
No agreement reached • 25%
Temporary truce • 25%
Escalation of trade war • 25%
New trade agreement • 25%
Increased tariffs • 25%
Status quo maintained • 25%
Escalation of trade tensions • 25%
Significant deterioration • 25%
Minor deterioration • 25%
No change • 25%
Improvement • 25%
New tariffs agreed • 25%
Tariffs reduced • 25%
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Trade agreement reached • 25%
Improved relations • 25%
Deteriorated relations • 25%
Status quo maintained • 25%
Other significant event • 25%
New trade agreement reached • 25%
Increased tariffs without agreement • 25%
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Other outcome • 25%
Improved relations • 25%
Status quo • 25%
Deteriorated relations • 25%
Other • 25%
Improved relations • 25%
Status quo • 25%
Increased tensions • 25%
Severe trade conflict • 25%
Resolution reached • 25%
Ongoing negotiations • 25%
Escalation of tensions • 25%
Stalemate • 25%