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What will be the outcome of U.S.-China trade negotiations in 2025?
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Resolution / Starting Odds
New trade agreement • 25%
Increased tariffs • 25%
Status quo maintained • 25%
Escalation of trade tensions • 25%
Official announcements from the U.S. and Chinese trade representatives
Story
China Sets Record 4% GDP Deficit for 2025, Aims for 5% Growth Amid U.S. Tariff Threats
Dec 17, 2024, 06:08 AM
Chinese leaders have agreed to raise the budget deficit to 4% of gross domestic product (GDP) next year, marking the highest on record, while maintaining an economic growth target of around 5% for 2025. This decision comes as part of plans to counter potential tariff threats from the United States, with the increased deficit aimed at funding stimulus measures. The move reflects a shift towards a more proactive fiscal policy, with the additional spending to be financed through the issuance of special bonds outside the traditional budget. The strategy is designed to address internal economic challenges, including a housing crisis, high local government debt, and weakened consumption, as well as external pressures from potential U.S. tariff hikes.
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Other • 25%
Increased tensions • 25%
Status quo maintained • 25%
Improved relations • 25%
Status quo maintained • 25%
New trade agreement reached • 25%
Trade tensions escalate • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
New trade agreement • 25%
Improved relations • 25%
Status quo maintained • 25%
Increased tensions • 25%
Improved relations • 25%
Status quo maintained • 25%
Deteriorated relations • 25%
Other significant event • 25%
Other outcomes • 25%
Major restructuring • 25%
Minor adjustments • 25%
No changes • 25%
Stalemate • 25%
Resolution Reached • 25%
Other • 25%
Escalation • 25%
Deteriorated relations • 25%
Improved relations • 25%
Status quo • 25%
Other • 25%
Increased cyber sanctions • 25%
New cybersecurity agreement • 25%
No significant change • 25%
Escalation of cyber conflict • 25%
No agreement, tariffs imposed • 25%
Ongoing negotiations • 25%
Negotiations stalled • 25%
Successful agreement reached • 25%
Diplomatic resolution • 25%
Other • 25%
No action taken • 25%
Sanctions imposed • 25%
Tariffs imposed • 25%
New energy trade deal • 25%
Status quo maintained • 25%
Trade tensions escalate • 25%