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What will be the outcome of U.S.-China trade negotiations by June 30, 2025?
2
Resolution / Starting Odds
New trade agreement reached • 25%
Trade tensions escalate • 25%
Status quo maintained • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Official announcements from U.S. and Chinese trade representatives or major news outlets
Story
Trump Nominates Scott Bessent as Treasury Secretary, Signaling Hawkish Economic Pivot Amid Tariff Concerns
Nov 30, 2024, 11:00 PM
Donald Trump has nominated Scott Bessent as Treasury Secretary, a move that could have significant implications for U.S.-China trade relations. Analysts suggest that Bessent's appointment may indicate a hawkish economic stance, focusing on dollar dominance, tariffs, and sanctions. This raises questions about whether the U.S. will intensify its economic coercion strategies, particularly in light of Trump's recent threats to impose additional tariffs on China. The nomination has sparked discussions about potential relief for China, despite the ongoing trade tensions. Confirmation of Bessent's appointment remains uncertain as the transition process unfolds.
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New tariffs agreed • 25%
Tariffs reduced • 25%
Status quo maintained • 25%
Trade agreement reached • 25%
New trade deal reached • 25%
Trade negotiations stall • 25%
Trade war escalates • 25%
Status quo maintained • 25%
New trade agreement • 25%
Increased tariffs • 25%
Status quo maintained • 25%
Escalation of trade tensions • 25%
Improved relations • 25%
Status quo maintained • 25%
Increased tensions • 25%
New trade agreement • 25%
New trade agreement • 25%
No agreement reached • 25%
Temporary truce • 25%
Escalation of trade war • 25%
New trade agreement reached • 25%
Increased tariffs without agreement • 25%
Status quo maintained • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Improved relations • 25%
Deteriorated relations • 25%
Status quo maintained • 25%
Other significant event • 25%
Improved relations • 25%
Status quo maintained • 25%
Increased tensions • 25%
Other • 25%
Yes, with major concessions from the U.S. • 25%
Yes, with major concessions from China • 25%
Yes, with equal concessions from both sides • 25%
No agreement reached • 25%
Resolution reached • 25%
Ongoing negotiations • 25%
Escalation of tensions • 25%
Stalemate • 25%
Improvement in trade relations • 25%
Deterioration in trade relations • 25%
No significant change • 25%
Other developments • 25%