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What will be the outcome of trade negotiations between U.S., Mexico, and Canada by December 31, 2025?
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Resolution / Starting Odds
New trade agreement reached • 25%
No agreement, tariffs remain • 25%
Tariffs reduced without new agreement • 25%
Trade tensions escalate • 25%
Official trade agreements or announcements
Story
Trump Threatens 25% Tariffs on Mexico, Canada, and China Amid Reactions
Nov 26, 2024, 09:45 PM
President-elect Donald Trump has announced plans to impose sweeping tariffs on imports from Mexico, Canada, and China, including a proposed 25% tariff on Mexican goods. These measures are part of his broader strategy to address trade imbalances and reduce what he describes as an 'invasion' of goods into the U.S. The tariffs could significantly impact financial markets, which have already shown signs of volatility following the announcement. Additionally, U.S. lumber prices, which have risen due to reduced production in Canada, may see further increases if the tariffs are implemented. Canada and Mexico have reacted to the announcement, raising concerns about its implications. Furthermore, concerns have been raised about potential price increases for American consumers, which could conflict with Trump's campaign promise to ease inflationary pressures on families.
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US imposes tariffs, no retaliation • 25%
US imposes tariffs, Canada retaliates • 25%
Tariffs not imposed, negotiations successful • 25%
Other outcomes • 25%
Tariffs implemented as announced • 25%
Tariffs modified • 25%
Tariffs withdrawn • 25%
No resolution • 25%
Tariffs implemented • 25%
Tariffs avoided • 25%
Partial tariffs • 25%
Trade agreement revised • 25%
Trade agreement reached • 25%
Tariffs imposed • 25%
Status quo maintained • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
New trade agreement reached • 25%
Tariffs increased • 25%
Status quo maintained • 25%
Trade tensions escalate • 25%
Successful agreement reached • 25%
No agreement, tariffs imposed • 25%
Ongoing negotiations • 25%
Negotiations stalled • 25%
Increased tariffs on China • 25%
Increased tariffs on EU • 25%
New trade deal with China • 25%
New trade deal with EU • 25%
Tariffs implemented • 25%
Tariffs negotiated down • 25%
Tariffs withdrawn • 25%
Ongoing tensions • 25%
Tariffs imposed • 25%
Tariffs avoided with agreement • 25%
Temporary tariff suspension • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Major restructuring • 25%
Minor adjustments • 25%
No changes • 25%
Other outcomes • 25%
New trade agreement • 25%
No agreement reached • 25%
Temporary truce • 25%
Escalation of trade war • 25%
Tariffs implemented • 25%
Tariffs blocked • 25%
Tariffs modified • 25%
No change • 25%