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What will be the outcome of U.S. trade policy changes under Lighthizer by end of 2025?
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Donald Trump•Robert Lighthizer•Lighthizer•Trump•China•Chinese•Wall Street•Skadden Arps•USMCA•Mexico•Canada
Resolution / Starting Odds
Significant increase in tariffs on Chinese goods • 25%
No major changes in trade policy • 25%
New trade agreements with non-China countries • 25%
Other outcomes • 25%
Official U.S. government reports and major news outlets
Story
Trump Picks Lighthizer, Known for China Trade War, to Lead U.S. Trade Policy
Nov 8, 2024, 05:11 PM
President-elect Donald Trump has asked Robert Lighthizer, an arch protectionist, to return as U.S. Trade Representative, signaling a potential shift back to aggressive trade policies. Lighthizer, who served from 2017 to 2021 during Trump's previous administration, is known for launching the trade war with China and implementing tariffs on Chinese goods. Prior to his government service, he spent three decades at Wall Street law firm Skadden Arps, where he fought imports from China on behalf of the U.S. steel industry, including U.S. Steel. He played a key role in negotiating the USMCA with Mexico and Canada. Lighthizer's appointment suggests a possible return to protectionism and efforts to decouple from China, raising questions about how quickly new tariffs might be implemented.
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Increased tariffs • 25%
Decreased tariffs • 25%
New trade agreements • 25%
No significant changes • 25%
Major restructuring • 25%
Minor adjustments • 25%
No changes • 25%
Other outcomes • 25%
Improved relations • 25%
Status quo maintained • 25%
Increased tensions • 25%
Other • 25%
New trade deal reached • 25%
Trade negotiations stall • 25%
Trade war escalates • 25%
Status quo maintained • 25%
New trade agreement reached • 25%
Increased tariffs without agreement • 25%
Status quo maintained • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Strengthened trade restrictions • 25%
Relaxed trade restrictions • 25%
No significant change • 25%
Other • 25%
New trade agreement • 25%
Increased tariffs • 25%
Status quo maintained • 25%
Escalation of trade tensions • 25%
Improved relations • 25%
Status quo maintained • 25%
Increased tensions • 25%
New trade agreement • 25%
Favorable to U.S. • 25%
Neutral • 25%
Unfavorable to U.S. • 25%
No significant agreements • 25%
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
Increased production • 25%
Decreased production • 25%
No significant change • 25%
Other impact • 25%
Tariffs implemented • 25%
Tariffs negotiated • 25%
Trade agreement revised • 25%
Status quo maintained • 25%