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What will be the outcome of Turkey's involvement in Idlib by June 2025?
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Resolution / Starting Odds
Increased military presence • 25%
Withdrawal of forces • 25%
Stalemate with no significant change • 25%
Peace agreement • 25%
Reports from international observers and news agencies
Story
Erdogan Declares New Political Reality in Syria, Emphasizes Turkey's 910 km Border and 13 Years of Conflict
Dec 7, 2024, 03:01 PM
Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan addressed the ongoing situation in Syria during a speech at the AK Party's Gaziantep congress. He emphasized a new political and diplomatic reality in Syria, asserting that the future of the country should be determined by the Syrian people themselves. Erdoğan stated that Turkey has no territorial ambitions, declaring, "We do not look at anyone's territory, not even a pebble." He reiterated Turkey's commitment to national security, asserting that no actions threatening Turkey's security would be tolerated, particularly in light of the ongoing violence in Syria. Erdoğan also expressed a desire for peace in Syria, which has been mired in conflict for 13 years, stating that the Syrian people deserve freedom and security. He highlighted the importance of addressing the threats posed by terrorist organizations, acknowledging their attempts to exploit the situation. Erdoğan's comments come amid escalating tensions and attacks in regions like Idlib, which he described as a tipping point for Turkey's involvement in the conflict.
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Other outcome • 25%
Turkey gains significant influence in Syria • 25%
Status quo remains • 25%
Turkey withdraws from Syrian affairs • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Status quo maintained • 25%
Increased military engagement • 25%
Diplomatic resolution with SDF • 25%
Partial success • 25%
No intervention • 25%
Success in preventing fragmentation • 25%
Failure to achieve goals • 25%
Deterioration in Relations • 25%
Successful Constitutional Reform • 25%
Increased Security Cooperation • 25%
Status Quo Maintained • 25%
Stalemate with no significant changes • 25%
Withdrawal of forces • 25%
Increased territorial control • 25%
Escalation of conflict • 25%
Operation leads to significant international backlash • 25%
Other outcomes • 25%
Successful operation with Turkish control • 25%
Stalemate with no significant gains • 25%
Consulate not opened and relations worsen • 25%
Consulate opened and diplomatic relations improved • 25%
Consulate not opened due to diplomatic issues • 25%
Consulate opened but relations remain tense • 25%
Status quo maintained • 25%
Improved relations with Syrian government • 25%
Other • 25%
Increased tensions with Syrian government • 25%
Other outcomes • 25%
Turkey establishes a friendly government in Syria • 25%
Turkey withdraws influence from Syria • 25%
Continued military presence without government change • 25%
Other • 25%
Turkey strengthens control in Syria • 25%
Turkey withdraws influence from Syria • 25%
Status quo remains • 25%
Peace agreement signed • 25%
Increased tensions • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Status quo maintained • 25%
Minor skirmishes, no significant change • 25%
Withdrawal from contested areas • 25%
Other outcomes • 25%
Significant territorial gains • 25%
Deterioration in relations • 25%
No significant change • 25%
Improved bilateral relations • 25%
Formal alliance or treaty • 25%