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What will be the outcome of Turkey's potential military action in Syria against Kurdish militants by June 30, 2025?
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Tayyip Erdogan•Kurdish•Syria•Ankara•Erdogan•Turkey•PKK•Turkish•Hakan Fidan•Kurdish YPG•Fidan•Western•Syrian
Resolution / Starting Odds
Successful operation with significant Kurdish retreat • 25%
Stalemate with ongoing conflict • 25%
Operation called off or delayed indefinitely • 25%
Other outcomes • 25%
Reports from credible news agencies and official statements from involved parties
Story
Erdogan Warns of Imminent Military Action Against Kurdish Militants in Syria Following Assad's Ouster
Jan 6, 2025, 04:33 PM
Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan has stated that the end of Kurdish militants in Syria is approaching, following the ousting of Bashar al-Assad last month. Speaking after a cabinet meeting in Ankara, Erdogan threatened a new military operation into Syria against the Kurdish militia if Turkey feels threatened, using his well-known slogan 'we can come suddenly one night'. He emphasized Turkey's firm commitment to its survival and security, asserting that the country has the capacity to intervene if necessary. Erdogan also warned that there is no room for terrorism in Syria's future, stating that those who choose terror and violence will be buried with their weapons. He noted that the PKK's empire of violence built over Kurdish people is on the verge of collapsing. Additionally, Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan declared that the eradication of the Kurdish YPG militia in Syria is imminent, and Ankara will not allow the group to maintain a presence in the country. Fidan also criticized any Western support for Kurdish fighters in Syria, suggesting it is a pretext to embolden the PKK, which Turkey classifies as a terror group. Turkey has previously conducted several incursions into northern Syria, and the new Syrian administration is expected to address the issue of Kurdish militants.
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Stalemate with no clear control • 25%
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Kurdish forces retain control • 25%
Minor skirmishes, no significant change • 25%
Significant territorial gains • 25%
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Withdrawal from contested areas • 25%
Successful operation with Turkish control • 25%
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PKK/YPG leadership leaves voluntarily • 25%
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Military operation conducted • 25%
Diplomatic resolution reached • 25%
Increased military engagement • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Status quo maintained • 25%
Diplomatic resolution with SDF • 25%
Stalemate • 25%
Complete success • 25%
Partial success • 25%
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Partial success with some areas controlled • 25%
Complete success with full control established • 25%
Stalemate with no significant change • 25%
Failure with loss of territory • 25%
Ceasefire reached • 25%
Complete withdrawal • 25%
Other • 25%
Continued military engagement • 25%
Partial success • 25%
Failure to achieve goals • 25%
No intervention • 25%
Success in preventing fragmentation • 25%
Ceasefire agreement • 25%
Other • 25%
Turkish military victory • 25%
Kurdish forces maintain control • 25%
Other outcomes • 25%
Significant reduction in PKK/YPG activity • 25%
No significant change in PKK/YPG activity • 25%
Increase in PKK/YPG activity • 25%
Limited skirmishes • 25%
Ground invasion • 25%
Air strikes • 25%
No military action • 25%
No significant action taken • 25%
Joint action by Syria and Turkey • 25%
Turkey intervenes militarily • 25%
Syria takes action independently • 25%