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What will be the outcome of Turkey's threat against Kurdish YPG by March 31, 2025?
2
Resolution / Starting Odds
Military Operation Launched • 25%
Diplomatic Resolution Achieved • 25%
Status Quo Maintained • 25%
Other Outcome • 25%
Official statements from Turkey, Kurdish YPG, or international news agencies
Story
Turkey's Hakan Fidan Threatens Military Action Against Kurdish YPG in Northeastern Syria
Jan 7, 2025, 06:42 PM
Turkey's Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan has announced that Turkey is prepared to launch a military operation against the Kurdish YPG militia in northeastern Syria if the group fails to comply with Ankara's demands. Fidan stated that the new Syrian administration is expected to address the issue of Kurdish militants in the region, though it may take time. Additionally, Turkey is ready to take over the management of ISIS prisons and camps in northeastern Syria if the new Syrian leadership is unable to do so. Fidan emphasized that Turkey does not seek to dominate or influence Syria, but rather aims for a bilateral relationship based on mutual equality.
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Turkey launches military operation • 25%
YPG complies and withdraws • 25%
Negotiations lead to a peaceful resolution • 25%
Stalemate with no significant changes • 25%
Diplomatic resolution reached • 25%
PKK/YPG leadership leaves voluntarily • 25%
Military operation conducted • 25%
No significant change • 25%
Diplomatic agreement reached • 25%
Turkey conducts military action • 25%
Status quo remains • 25%
Syria disbands YPG • 25%
YPG remains • 25%
YPG disbanded • 25%
YPG relocated • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
No significant change • 25%
Negotiations lead to a compromise • 25%
YPG does not disband, military operation initiated • 25%
YPG disbands • 25%
Complete eradication of YPG presence • 25%
Partial reduction of YPG presence • 25%
No significant change in YPG presence • 25%
Increased YPG presence • 25%
Turkey intervenes militarily • 25%
Syria takes action independently • 25%
No significant action taken • 25%
Joint action by Syria and Turkey • 25%
Partial elimination • 25%
YPG strengthens • 25%
No significant change • 25%
YPG fully eliminated • 25%
Turkey retreats from threats • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Diplomatic resolution achieved • 25%
Turkey attacks Kobane • 25%
Significant reduction in PKK/YPG activity • 25%
Increase in PKK/YPG activity • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
No significant change in PKK/YPG activity • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Agreement reached • 25%
No agreement, continued tensions • 25%
Military escalation • 25%
Other outcomes • 25%
Operation called off or delayed indefinitely • 25%
Stalemate with ongoing conflict • 25%
Successful operation with significant Kurdish retreat • 25%