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What will be the outcome of Turkey's ultimatum to YPG by March 31, 2025?
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Turkey•Kurdish YPG•Syria•Hakan Fidan•Ankara•Fidan•Iran•Iraq•United States•Turkish Armed Forces•Syrian National Army•SNA•Peace Spring Operation•Tishrin Dam•Aleppo•Turkish Defense Ministry•Syrian leadership•YPG
Resolution / Starting Odds
YPG complies and withdraws • 25%
Turkey launches military operation • 25%
Negotiations lead to a peaceful resolution • 25%
Stalemate with no significant changes • 25%
Reports from credible news agencies and official statements
Story
Turkey Threatens Military Operation Against Kurdish YPG Near Tishrin Dam, Citing Use of Civilians as Shields
Jan 9, 2025, 01:01 AM
Turkey has escalated its stance against the Kurdish YPG militia in Syria, with Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan stating that a military operation will be launched if the group does not comply with Ankara's demands. Fidan emphasized that international terrorist fighters from Turkey, Iran, and Iraq must leave Syria immediately. The ultimatum was communicated through the United States and the media. Turkey has been actively preparing for potential operations, with the Turkish Armed Forces on alert and the Syrian National Army (SNA) deploying heavy weapons and fighters to front lines in the Peace Spring Operation area. These preparations include targeting PKK/YPG positions near the Tishrin Dam in eastern Aleppo. The Turkish Defense Ministry has signaled readiness for cross-border operations if terrorist groups do not disarm, citing the use of civilians as human shields by PKK/YPG near the Tishrin Dam as a human rights violation. Turkey's actions are in response to the recent change in Syrian leadership, with Ankara demanding that the new administration address the YPG issue.
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Status Quo Maintained • 25%
Military Operation Launched • 25%
Diplomatic Resolution Achieved • 25%
Other Outcome • 25%
Status quo remains • 25%
Turkey conducts military action • 25%
Syria disbands YPG • 25%
Diplomatic agreement reached • 25%
Negotiations lead to a compromise • 25%
YPG does not disband, military operation initiated • 25%
YPG disbands • 25%
No significant change • 25%
Diplomatic resolution reached • 25%
PKK/YPG leadership leaves voluntarily • 25%
No significant change • 25%
Military operation conducted • 25%
YPG relocated • 25%
YPG disbanded • 25%
YPG remains • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
No significant action taken • 25%
Turkey intervenes militarily • 25%
Syria takes action independently • 25%
Joint action by Syria and Turkey • 25%
PKK/YPG refuses to disarm • 25%
PKK/YPG partially disarms • 25%
PKK/YPG disarms completely • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Complete eradication of YPG presence • 25%
Partial reduction of YPG presence • 25%
Increased YPG presence • 25%
No significant change in YPG presence • 25%
Agreement reached • 25%
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Military escalation • 25%
No agreement, continued tensions • 25%
YPG fully eliminated • 25%
YPG strengthens • 25%
Partial elimination • 25%
No significant change • 25%
