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What will be the outcome of Turkey's threat against PKK/YPG in Syria by June 30, 2025?
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Resolution / Starting Odds
Military operation conducted • 25%
PKK/YPG leadership leaves voluntarily • 25%
Diplomatic resolution reached • 25%
No significant change • 25%
Reports from international news agencies and official statements from involved parties
Story
Turkey Threatens Military Action Against PKK/YPG in Syria if Leadership Does Not Leave
Jan 7, 2025, 07:15 PM
Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan has warned that Turkey will launch a military operation against Kurdish militants in Syria if they do not comply with Ankara's demands. Fidan emphasized that the new Syrian administration must address the issue of Kurdish militants in northeastern Syria, although it may take time. He stated that Turkey has issued a final ultimatum, and the PKK and YPG leadership must leave Syria. If they fail to do so, Turkey will take necessary action, which includes military operations. Fidan also mentioned that Turkey does not seek sovereignty or influence over Syria but opposes any foreign control. He noted that Turkey has previously conducted operations against the PKK/YPG despite U.S. presence in the region.
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Status Quo Maintained • 25%
Diplomatic Resolution Achieved • 25%
Military Operation Launched • 25%
Other Outcome • 25%
Complete success • 25%
Partial success • 25%
Stalemate • 25%
Failure • 25%
Inconclusive • 25%
Complete success • 25%
Partial success • 25%
No success • 25%
Complete elimination • 25%
PKK/YPG gains strength • 25%
No significant change • 25%
Partial reduction • 25%
Increase in PKK/YPG activity • 25%
Significant reduction in PKK/YPG activity • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
No significant change in PKK/YPG activity • 25%
Significant reduction • 25%
Minimal impact • 25%
PKK/YPG strengthens • 25%
Complete eradication • 25%
No significant change • 25%
Negotiations lead to a compromise • 25%
YPG does not disband, military operation initiated • 25%
YPG disbands • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Agreement reached • 25%
No agreement, continued tensions • 25%
Military escalation • 25%
Other outcomes • 25%
Increase in PKK/YPG activity • 25%
No significant change in PKK/YPG activity • 25%
Significant reduction in PKK/YPG activity • 25%
Significant reduction of PKK/YPG activities • 25%
Increased PKK/YPG activities • 25%
No significant change • 25%
Successful elimination of PKK/YPG presence • 25%
YPG disbanded • 25%
YPG relocated • 25%
YPG remains • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Operation called off or delayed indefinitely • 25%
Stalemate with ongoing conflict • 25%
Successful operation with significant Kurdish retreat • 25%
Other outcomes • 25%