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What will be the outcome of Turkey-Syria negotiations on PKK/YPG by Dec 31, 2025?
2
Resolution / Starting Odds
Agreement reached • 25%
No agreement, continued tensions • 25%
Military escalation • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Official statements from Turkey and Syria, or credible reports from international media
Story
Turkey's Fidan Tells Blinken: No PKK/YPG in Syria, Urges Syrian Stability
Dec 28, 2024, 03:41 PM
Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan spoke with U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken, emphasizing that Turkey will not permit the PKK/YPG terrorist organization to shelter in Syria. Fidan underlined the importance of collaborating with Syria's new administration to ensure stability and complete the transition period in an orderly manner. The U.S. Department of State confirmed that Blinken and Fidan discussed the shared goal of preventing terrorism from jeopardizing the security of both Turkey and Syria, and emphasized the need to support a Syrian-led political process.
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Successful elimination of PKK/YPG presence • 25%
Significant reduction of PKK/YPG activities • 25%
No significant change • 25%
Increased PKK/YPG activities • 25%
PKK/YPG disarms completely • 25%
PKK/YPG partially disarms • 25%
PKK/YPG refuses to disarm • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Significant reduction in PKK/YPG activity • 25%
No significant change in PKK/YPG activity • 25%
Increase in PKK/YPG activity • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Complete success • 25%
Partial success • 25%
No success • 25%
Inconclusive • 25%
Establishment of a new Syrian government • 25%
Continuation of current regime with reforms • 25%
Federalization of Syria into autonomous regions • 25%
No significant change • 25%
Complete elimination • 25%
Partial reduction • 25%
No significant change • 25%
PKK/YPG gains strength • 25%
YPG disbanded • 25%
YPG relocated • 25%
YPG remains • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Complete success • 25%
Partial success • 25%
Stalemate • 25%
Failure • 25%
Syria takes action independently • 25%
Turkey intervenes militarily • 25%
Joint action by Syria and Turkey • 25%
No significant action taken • 25%
Improved relations with Syrian government • 25%
Increased tensions with Syrian government • 25%
Status quo maintained • 25%
Other • 25%
Consulate opened and diplomatic relations improved • 25%
Consulate opened but relations remain tense • 25%
Consulate not opened due to diplomatic issues • 25%
Consulate not opened and relations worsen • 25%
Agreement on de-escalation measures • 25%
Continued diplomatic stalemate • 25%
Increased tensions leading to sanctions • 25%
Other outcome • 25%