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What will be the outcome of Turkey's demands regarding the YPG in northeastern Syria by June 30, 2025?
2
Resolution / Starting Odds
YPG disbands • 25%
YPG does not disband, military operation initiated • 25%
Negotiations lead to a compromise • 25%
No significant change • 25%
Official statements from the Turkish government and reports from international news agencies
Story
Turkey Threatens Military Action in Northeastern Syria Against YPG Unless Foreign Fighters and PKK Leaders Depart
Jan 7, 2025, 07:14 PM
Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan has warned that Turkey will launch a military operation against the Kurdish People's Protection Units (YPG) in northeastern Syria if the group does not meet Ankara's demands, including disbanding itself. Fidan emphasized that the new Syrian administration must address the issue of the YPG's presence, which Turkey considers a terrorist group linked to the PKK. He stated that foreign fighters from Turkey, Iran, and Iraq must leave Syria immediately, and PKK leaders, whose names are known to Turkey, should also depart. Fidan added that if these conditions are not met, a military operation would be the solution. He also mentioned that Turkey aims for a bloodless transition and has the capability to manage prisons and detention camps holding Daesh terrorists in Syria if the new Syrian leadership is unable to do so.
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Turkey conducts military action • 25%
Status quo remains • 25%
Diplomatic agreement reached • 25%
Syria disbands YPG • 25%
Military operation conducted • 25%
No significant change • 25%
Diplomatic resolution reached • 25%
PKK/YPG leadership leaves voluntarily • 25%
Stalemate with no significant changes • 25%
Turkey launches military operation • 25%
Negotiations lead to a peaceful resolution • 25%
YPG complies and withdraws • 25%
YPG relocated • 25%
YPG disbanded • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
YPG remains • 25%
No significant action taken • 25%
Joint action by Syria and Turkey • 25%
Syria takes action independently • 25%
Turkey intervenes militarily • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Agreement reached • 25%
No agreement, continued tensions • 25%
Military escalation • 25%
PKK/YPG disarms completely • 25%
PKK/YPG refuses to disarm • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
PKK/YPG partially disarms • 25%
Complete eradication of YPG presence • 25%
Increased YPG presence • 25%
No significant change in YPG presence • 25%
Partial reduction of YPG presence • 25%
Military Operation Launched • 25%
Diplomatic Resolution Achieved • 25%
Status Quo Maintained • 25%
Other Outcome • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Increased tensions leading to sanctions • 25%
Continued diplomatic stalemate • 25%
Agreement on de-escalation measures • 25%
