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What will be the outcome of Turkish threats towards Kobane by December 31, 2025?
2
Resolution / Starting Odds
Turkey attacks Kobane • 25%
Turkey retreats from threats • 25%
Diplomatic resolution achieved • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Reports from international news agencies and official statements from involved governments
Story
U.S. Military Begins Construction of Base in Kobane to Support SDF Amid Turkey's Threats
Jan 2, 2025, 08:41 AM
The U.S. military has initiated the construction of a new military base in Kobane, a city in northern Syria controlled by the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF). This development comes amid rising tensions as Turkey prepares to launch an attack on Ayn al-Arab, also known as Kobane. The U.S. aims to establish a longstanding military presence in the region to support the Kurdish population and deter Turkish military actions. Reports indicate that the construction of the base is a response to Turkey's threats, reinforcing U.S. commitment to the Kurdish militia in the area. The international coalition's involvement was also confirmed by Kurdish sources, highlighting the strategic significance of this military installation.
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Kurdish forces retain control • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Stalemate with no clear control • 25%
Turkey gains control of Kobani • 25%
Diplomatic resolution • 25%
Full-scale incursion • 25%
Status quo maintained • 25%
Limited military action • 25%
Continued military engagement • 25%
Ceasefire reached • 25%
Complete success with full control established • 25%
Partial success with some areas controlled • 25%
Stalemate with no significant change • 25%
Failure with loss of territory • 25%
Other • 25%
Complete withdrawal • 25%
SDF regains control • 25%
Turkey gains control • 25%
Stalemate • 25%
Peace agreement • 25%
YPG disbanded • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
YPG remains • 25%
YPG relocated • 25%
Syria takes action independently • 25%
Turkey intervenes militarily • 25%
Joint action by Syria and Turkey • 25%
No significant action taken • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Increase in PKK/YPG activity • 25%
No significant change in PKK/YPG activity • 25%
Significant reduction in PKK/YPG activity • 25%
Condemnation and sanctions • 25%
No significant response • 25%
Support for Turkey • 25%
Diplomatic negotiations • 25%
Status Quo Maintained • 25%
Successful Constitutional Reform • 25%
Increased Security Cooperation • 25%
Deterioration in Relations • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
PKK/YPG maintains current strength • 25%
PKK/YPG significantly weakened • 25%
PKK/YPG regains strength • 25%