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What will be the outcome of Turkey's efforts to eliminate the YPG in Syria by December 31, 2025?
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Resolution / Starting Odds
YPG disbanded • 25%
YPG relocated • 25%
YPG remains • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Official statements from the Turkish government, Syrian government, or credible international news agencies
Story
Turkey Aims to Eliminate YPG in Syria, Pushes for New Administration
Dec 13, 2024, 07:31 PM
Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan has declared the elimination of the YPG (People's Protection Units) in Syria as a strategic priority for Turkey. Fidan emphasized that the YPG, which he associates with the PKK, must either disband or be eradicated. He stated that the PKK elements within the YPG must leave Syria, as the country aims to establish a new, unified administration. Fidan highlighted that the Assad regime had previously disregarded political processes proposed by Ankara for a solution in Syria. He also mentioned that Syria now has a sovereign national government that does not recognize the YPG or any other power and will reclaim its territory. The minister stressed that the safety of the Kurdish population must be ensured during this process.
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YPG fully eliminated • 25%
Partial elimination • 25%
No significant change • 25%
YPG strengthens • 25%
Complete elimination • 25%
Partial reduction • 25%
No significant change • 25%
PKK/YPG gains strength • 25%
Significant reduction in PKK/YPG activity • 25%
No significant change in PKK/YPG activity • 25%
Increase in PKK/YPG activity • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Complete success with full control established • 25%
Partial success with some areas controlled • 25%
Stalemate with no significant change • 25%
Failure with loss of territory • 25%
Ceasefire reached • 25%
Continued military engagement • 25%
Complete withdrawal • 25%
Other • 25%
Successful elimination of PKK/YPG presence • 25%
Significant reduction of PKK/YPG activities • 25%
No significant change • 25%
Increased PKK/YPG activities • 25%
Complete success • 25%
Partial success • 25%
Stalemate • 25%
Failure • 25%
Syria disbands YPG • 25%
Turkey conducts military action • 25%
Diplomatic agreement reached • 25%
Status quo remains • 25%
SDF regains control • 25%
Turkey gains control • 25%
Stalemate • 25%
Peace agreement • 25%
Syria takes action independently • 25%
Turkey intervenes militarily • 25%
Joint action by Syria and Turkey • 25%
No significant action taken • 25%
Continued military action • 25%
Diplomatic engagement • 25%
Policy remains unchanged • 25%
New strategy announced • 25%