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What will be TikTok's fate in the U.S. by Jan 19, 2025?
2
Resolution / Starting Odds
TikTok banned • 25%
TikTok sold to U.S. buyer • 25%
TikTok continues operations without change • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Official announcements from the U.S. government, ByteDance, or relevant courts
Story
Trump Awaits Court Ruling on TikTok's U.S. Fate, Impacting ByteDance, Oracle
Dec 5, 2024, 12:05 PM
The future of TikTok in the United States is uncertain as a federal appeals court is expected to rule on the app's potential ban this week. President-elect Donald Trump will have the final say on whether TikTok, owned by the Chinese company ByteDance, can continue operations in the U.S. or must be sold to an American buyer by January 19. The decision could benefit major U.S. tech companies while posing a risk to Oracle, which might lose a significant revenue source. Trump faces a divide among his supporters, with some viewing TikTok as a Chinese enemy within, while others see it as an indispensable social platform.
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Ban halted • 25%
Non-China owner found • 25%
Ban implemented • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Ban enforced • 25%
Ban prevented by Trump • 25%
ByteDance divests • 25%
Other resolution • 25%
ByteDance sells TikTok's U.S. operations • 25%
TikTok is banned from U.S. app stores • 25%
TikTok wins appeal and continues operations • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Continues operations without changes • 25%
Divests from ByteDance • 25%
Banned in the U.S. • 25%
Partially restricted • 25%
Sold to U.S. company • 25%
Banned in the U.S. • 25%
Remains with ByteDance • 25%
Operational changes without sale • 25%
TikTok banned • 33%
TikTok sold to a US company • 33%
TikTok continues without changes • 33%
Removed from both stores • 25%
Removed from Apple only • 25%
Removed from Google only • 25%
Not removed from either store • 25%
Ban enforced • 25%
Ban delayed • 25%
Ban lifted • 25%
Divestiture completed • 25%
Fully operational with new owner • 25%
Operational under current ownership • 25%
Partially operational with restrictions • 25%
Not operational • 25%
Ban is enforced • 25%
Ban is reversed by Trump • 25%
Ban is temporarily blocked by Supreme Court • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Supreme Court blocks ban • 25%
Ban upheld, ByteDance divests • 25%
Ban upheld, TikTok banned • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Acquired by US-based company • 25%
Acquired by non-US, non-China-based company • 25%
Remains under current ownership • 25%
Operations cease in the US • 25%
Sold to US company • 25%
Sold to non-US company • 25%
Remains under ByteDance • 25%
Banned in US • 25%
Sold to U.S. company • 25%
Remains with ByteDance • 25%
Banned in U.S. • 25%
Other outcome • 25%